05-15-2013 GAME THREAD: Reds vs. Marlins, One Down, Two To Go

by DocProc 15. May 2013 10:51

 

Gametime:  7:10 p.m.

 

Pitching Matchup:

Leake (2-2, 4.32)

Sanabia (2-5, 4.85)

 

Lineups:

Cincinnati Reds (23-16 and on a roll)

# Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV
1 Shin-Soo Choo(L) CF 0.85 0.06 -0.04 0.68 0.89 1.44
2 Cesar Izturis(S) SS -0.95 -1.41 -1.58 -0.04 -1.13 -2.14
3 Joey Votto(L) 1B 1.74 0.91 1.98 -0.51 2.53 3.54
4 Brandon Phillips(R) 2B 0.36 -0.29 1.14 0.24 0.94 -0.24
5 Jay Bruce(L) RF 0.47 1.58 1.55 -0.38 0.05 0.22
6 Xavier Paul(L) LF -0.20 -0.76 -0.37 0.95 0.18 -0.36
7 Jack Hannahan(L) 3B -0.94 -0.85 -1.08 -0.84 -0.82 -0.44
8 Devin Mesoraco(R) C -0.67 -0.20 -0.34 -0.87 -0.46 -0.59
9 Mike Leake(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA

Miami Marlins (11-28 and rolling over)

#   Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV
1 Juan Pierre(L) LF 0.17 -1.75 -1.61 2.33 1.23 -0.08
2 Placido Polanco(R) 3B -0.66 -1.52 -1.50 -0.88 0.27 -0.83
3 Derek Dietrich() 2B NA NA NA NA NA NA
4 Marcell Ozuna() RF -0.73 0.22 -0.48 -0.60 -1.01 -1.75
5 Justin Ruggiano(R) CF 0.09 0.17 -0.01 0.59 0.59 -0.20
6 Greg Dobbs(L) 1B -0.53 -0.81 -0.74 -0.66 0.53 -0.84
7 Adeiny Hechavarria(R) SS -1.12 -1.32 -1.17 -0.62 -0.39 -1.58
8 Rob Brantly(L) C -0.63 -0.70 -0.73 -0.70 0.34 -0.31
9 Alex Sanabia(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA

Last Night:

This is the way we should beat inferior teams: Jump on them early, then keep them in check.  The big hit of the night was Xavier Paul’s bases-clearing double, but I also appreciated the RBI walks by Votto and Phillips.  Don’t swing at crap, even if you’re the team’s big hitters.

Multi-hit games from Cozart, Votto, Phillips, and Hanigan—good stuff.  Better yet was the complete game, ten strikeout performance by Homer Bailey.  For those who weren’t watching in the 9th inning, he consistently was hitting 95-97 MPH on the radar gun at the end of the game.  It was nice to see him protect the lead so (seemingly) effortlessly.  He was dealing.

 

Tonight:

Big game for Mike Leake.  Might it be his last turn in the rotation, since Johnny Cueto is raring to return next week?  I’d like to think so, but he’ll probably make the decision difficult.  He tends to perform well against poor teams, and they don’t get much poorer than the Marlins.

 

Cingrani or Leake:

I know that most everyone weighed in on this yesterday, stealing my thunder for today’s starter.  Let me just say for the record that I’m firmly in the Cingrani camp.  Besides the fact that we need a lefty in this rotation (and have for years), he has simply performed better than Leake.  Yes, I know he needs to develop a second or third pitch.  Let him do so under the tutelage of Bryan Price.  Yes, I know he might get hit harder the second time teams face him—but that’s all the more reason to let teams face him at least once.  And no, please don’t put him in the bullpen (as Jim Kelch suggested last night).  Groom and keep him as a starter, because a lefty who throws 95 MPH is an awfully rare commodity.  We already have a hard-throwing lefty who should be a starter in the bullpen. 

 

Random Things I’d Like to See In Tonight’s Game:

--Cozart taking an outside pitch to right field for a single

--Votto driving a ball off the wall in left-center for a double

--Robinson racing down a deep fly ball in CF (and giving Choo a night off and batting leadoff)

--Bruce picking back up where Dusty left him off

--Leake not giving up walks at the rate he has this season

--Frazier getting a couple of hits (he’s at .229 right now—need to get him back on track)

 

 

Tags:

Game Thread

Comments (126) -

Amy
Amy
5/15/2013 10:55:49 AM #

Thanks again, Doc! Soccer game should be over by 7--I might get to watch most of this game!

I honestly don't know what to think about Leake vs. Cingrani. I know I won't be horrified whichever way the decision goes, which is a good thing.

bjsReds1
bjsReds1
5/15/2013 11:14:43 AM #

Doc, excellent job.

I'm in the Cingrani camp.  It's really not close, but at this point in the season, I understand the argument either way and really don't think it matters a whole lot what they do right now.  So, it won't upset me either way.

I'd like to hope they will preserve Cingrani for later in the season.  If the Reds are in a tight race in September or need an extra starter in the playoffs, Cingrani needs to be that option.  Heck, let's say they face a predominantly left handed hitting team in the one game wild card game playoff and Cueto/Latos aren't available, I'd say there is a strong case to be made that Cingrani pitches that game.  Maybe he doesn't start it, but he's available at the first sign of trouble.  

As the season progresses, I don't think there'll be much of a win/loss difference between Leake/Cingrani, but there's no way in the world I want to see Leake pitching in an important game in September/October unless it's mopping up a blowout to save the staff for the next day.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:36:45 AM #

unless one of the other four starters goes down (ala Cueto last year) there would not be a need for a 5th starter in the playoffs. Homer (IMO) is a much of a big game pitcher as Cueto and Latos at this point.

bjsReds1
bjsReds1
5/15/2013 11:40:41 AM #

Agreed on Homer.  I'm simply stating that if the team needs a 5th starter or emergency pitcher in the playoffs or for a huge game down the stretch, it needs to be Cingrani over Leake.

Jabberwocky
Jabberwocky
5/15/2013 11:16:07 AM #

Great job again, Doc!  Does anyone else think Jim Kelch is an idiot?  I'm sorry, but I have not heard many intelligent comments since his hire.  He's a solid play-by-play guy who can rattle off stats ad infinidem, but some of his remarks drive me crazy.  Welch and Brantley don't let him get away with it, usually, so I guess that's good TV/radio.

If Cozart starts hitting opposite-field singles, his stock goes up tenfold.  That's what hitting second is supposed to do.  Move the base runner over any way you can.

Because Leake is a contact pitcher, he shouldn't be walking anybody.  His style relies on control-keeping the ball down in the zone and enticing ground balls.  If he's missing, he's trying to be too finite (probably because he knows he's auditioning).  When Leake just throws, not only is he less hittable, the pitches that find the bat do not result in hard line drives.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:34:49 AM #

the good thing about Kelch's dumb questions is that I am sure there are plenty of Reds' fans out there who ask the same dumb question(and have arrived at the dumb conclusion),so it is good that Welsh and The Cowboy keep him in line.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:18:59 AM #

Sam LeCure ‏@mrLeCure 9h

new stat, what guys hit the day after they get a post game pie in the face? PPS= post pie syndrome

since I can't watch the postgame, I have no idea who might fit PPS

Amy
Amy
5/15/2013 11:19:08 AM #

OHIO IS #1!!!

www.dispatch.com/.../swearing-study.html

Jabberwocky
Jabberwocky
5/15/2013 11:20:42 AM #

FUCKIN' A RIGHT!

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:38:03 AM #

wonder where in the hell California falls?

Jabberwocky
Jabberwocky
5/15/2013 11:43:51 AM #

Dudette...Californians are too busy finding bitchin' waves and gnarley attitudes to swear too much...it's all good, bro'...ya' know?

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:21:17 AM #

Reading through the overnight tweets I caught this:

Sir Random ‏@RedsRandomness 8h

Homer Bailey is the first pitcher in @MLB with a 10+ K, complete game on the road since...he did the same thing in his no-hitter last year.

If Homer can get 3-4 runs scored for him in his starts,he is going to have a monster year--I SAID IT HERE

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:25:23 AM #

Derrick Goold ‏@dgoold 54m

#Cardinals have two 120+ pitch starts so far the year. Other 14 teams in NL have two combined http://bit.ly/104Isny  via @STLtoday #stlcards


This may cement some people's thoughts on PC depending  on how the balance of the season turns out (i.e., staff continues to lead the league in nearly every category, or arms fall off)

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:30:07 AM #

Craig Calcaterra ‏@craigcalcaterra 13m

I can't tell you how happy Zambrano in Philly makes me.


Did I miss something?
Is the wild man now in Phillie, just as the Reds head there?

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:31:09 AM #

MLB Trade Rumors ‏@mlbtraderumors 14m

Phillies To Sign Carlos Zambrano http://bit.ly/142ZSBg  #mlb
Expand

ah--see this later tweet:it's a minor league contract (damn!)

Jabberwocky
Jabberwocky
5/15/2013 11:40:19 AM #

Mary...I'd like to think the Reds' bats are starting to heat up-or get back to "normal" (whatever that is) levels.  You are right, if the bats can score 3-4 per night, this entire staff is going to have a monster year.

DocProc
DocProc
5/15/2013 11:47:22 AM #

I have a farewell dinner for a colleague to attend tonight, so I'll miss the first several innings.  You folks will need to keep track of the "Random Things" mentioned in the starter to see if they occur.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 12:40:46 PM #

Just saw an article that had some numbers that really made me blink.  While going 7-10 to date on the road, the Reds as a team have hit only .228--which I had no trouble believing.  What blew my mind was that they managed to do this while having Votto hit .393 and BP .322 on the road.  Need to do a bit more number checking, but I would think that as a group, all non-Votto/BP Reds must be below the Mendoza line.  

off to look at splits....

Jabberwocky
Jabberwocky
5/15/2013 12:58:41 PM #

That's a really scary thought.  If true, then I'm glad they went to Miami before Philly.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 1:09:22 PM #

I just finished crunching some numbers, and it is pretty much as I thought it would be.  As a whole, the Reds have team BA of .265 at home and what I found fascinating is that that number is identical to the combined average of Votto and BP at home.  In other words, the load is shared at home.

The road splits are really,really skewed. As a team, the road BA is .228; take out Votto and BP from those numbers, and everyone else is hitting a combined .193.
Even Choo is not doing so well on the road,hitting only.246 with a .787 OPS (and those are the BEST non Votto/BP road stats)

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 1:13:00 PM #

oh, and Choo and Votto are almost direct opposites when it comes to home and away:

         Home BA/OPS       Away BA/OPS
Votto    .271/.788         .393/1.116
Choo     .355/1.164        .246/.787        

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 1:18:42 PM #

and in case you were interested who was above and below the team road BA of .193, here they are:

Better

Hanahan (and he is doing great at 5 for 12=.417)
Robinson
Choo
Bruce
Cozart
Paul

Everyone else is below .193

Jabberwocky
Jabberwocky
5/15/2013 1:50:30 PM #

That leaves Frazier and RhinoSnacks from the everyday starting 8.  And probably also why Paul is in the lineup rather than Lutz right now.

River Otter
River Otter
5/15/2013 2:20:48 PM #

Doc - Another terrific starter!  Good point about the patience shown by Votto and BP prior to the XP double.

Although I'm in the keep Leake camp, I agree this is probably an important start for him.

River Otter
River Otter
5/15/2013 2:40:30 PM #

Interesting article on former Red Tim the Enchanter:  www.fangraphs.com/.../

The takeaway is that although Wood has probably been a bit lucky in his terrific start to the year, he's also throwing fewer fastballs and more cutters and sliders.  My recollection is that Gene suggested he rely less on his FB a couple of years ago.  If he had taken Gene's advice, he might still be a Red.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 2:46:13 PM #

Gene suggested he rely less on his FB a couple of years ago

something I believe Gene has suggested for Cingrani as well

DocProc
DocProc
5/15/2013 3:40:38 PM #

Holy crap--both Cozart and Frazier out of the lineup tonight...

Shin-Soo Choo 8
Cesar Izturis 6
Joey Votto 3
Brandon Phillips 4
Jay Bruce 9
Xavier Paul 7
Jack Hannahan 5
Devin Mesoraco 2
Mike Leake 1

bjsReds1
bjsReds1
5/15/2013 3:43:24 PM #

I'm quite confident Dusty didn't make out this lineup.  6 of the first 7 batters will be hitting left handed.  Sure Izturis is a switch hitter, but facing a RH pitcher, he'll be hitting left handed.

bjsReds1
bjsReds1
5/15/2013 3:45:37 PM #

In this lineup, it should also be noted that Leake may be best suited to hit 2nd assuming Votto stays 3rd.

I'm not complaining.  It's the Marlins, the Reds should win if I was batting 2nd.  

Jabberwocky
Jabberwocky
5/15/2013 3:50:20 PM #

Or me.  I'm a lifetime .125 hitter from 3rd grade through Freshman in college.

Jabberwocky
Jabberwocky
5/15/2013 3:49:19 PM #

Hannahan makes sense, though.  The ToddFather is struggling and Hanny's batting .417, according to Mary's numbers above.  I know XP is batting OK, but I'd rather have Lutz in LF.

I've never heard of the pitcher.  Any scouting report?  Is he a fireballer or a junkballer?

.genewv
.genewv
5/15/2013 3:58:14 PM #

Hey gang, been out the the Little Woman's Garden today, doing a little yard work ( flower beds mostly), and then helping a little on the housework. How about that  for a well-rounded husband?

Another fine starter Doc. I did not see or hear the game last night, so I don't have anything to add there--or disagree, agree with. Nice to get the win, and it sounds as if Homer was really, really good.

I did complain about Wood throwing too many pitches close to the same speed--mostly fastballs and cutters. Both pitches were 87-91, no real speed differences. I said he needed to throw some change-ups, or a true curve to vary the speed. You absolutely have to keep ML hitters off balance if you are a starter, since you are going to see them 3-4 times per game. I am very glad to see Wood is doing well. I always liked him as a player.

I do agree we need a LH pitcher in the starting rotation, but, we don't have to have him today--again, IMO. I don't want to see Cingrani rushed at all ( remember Homer in the early years? Many wanted to trade him. Biggest problem was he was rushed. ), especially since we have a very good staff without him. When Leake is your number 5 guy, you don't expect him to beat the real good clubs very often--that is why he is number 5. No one's number 5 beats good teams very often. Agaion, JMO.

Finally, if you get 5-6 good innings out of your number 5 guy against good teams, you just need to resist the temptation to send him back out for a 7th inning. That is when they often get beat, 3rd, 4th time around.

Anyway, I think I get to watch tonight's game, though not tomorrow nights, as i have a Gideon meeting I have to attend.

Later

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 4:04:31 PM #

well, I found that he is a 32 round draft choice from 2006 and was pulled from his last start after four innings for a tight groin.  His WHIP is 1.72, so it may be that the Reds can up their road BA

Can't find anything re: what he throws so far

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 4:06:46 PM #

although fangraphs has some details for him:
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx

and shows that he has an 89 mph average fastball (which he has thrown around 53% so far this year). Sounds like a junkball pitcher

Jabberwocky
Jabberwocky
5/15/2013 4:45:40 PM #

Thank you!  My company doesn't like FanGraphs, unfortunately.  Frown

Jabberwocky
Jabberwocky
5/15/2013 4:53:57 PM #

I know he's injured right now, but Westbrook is the 5th starter for the Cardinals (the team we will be chasing for the next decade or so).  His ERA is 1.62 and no one in the Cards' rotation has an ERA over 3.  Except the kid they brought up, John Gast, is 1-0 with a 6 ERA.  He gave up 4 runs in 6 innings in his debut but the Cards scored 10 against the Mets.

I respectfully disagree, Gene.  I'd rather model that rotation and have every starter be a potential ace.

ashlandateam
ashlandateam
5/15/2013 5:28:31 PM #

Jabber, didn't we face this guy in Cincy and beat him around a little? I think we did.

And, upon further investigation, yes - he went 6 innings, gave up 5 runs, and we won.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 7:18:51 PM #

does Pierre ever catch anything near the wall?  BP with a two run double here in the first

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 7:19:53 PM #

oops, only one run scored

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 7:25:28 PM #

so LHers are hitting .389 vs. Sanabia--I think I understand the lineup better

.genewv
.genewv
5/15/2013 7:27:02 PM #

Good to take the early lead--always.

That said, it sure looked like, felt like, we had more coming.

.genewv
.genewv
5/15/2013 7:28:21 PM #

Mary,

On Pierre. i used to just assume he was a pretty good OF. I did not see him a lot, but still, i thought he was a quality defensive guy. Obviously, I was wrong.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 7:28:32 PM #

yeah, 1-0 is a bit deflating, but these are the Marlins and Sanabia did need 28 pitches to leave the bases loaded

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 7:35:24 PM #

Other than what appeared to be a phantom HBP, Leake has a clean inning, including 2 Ks on 16 pitches

1-0 Reds end of one

.genewv
.genewv
5/15/2013 7:36:44 PM #

Nice first by Leake.

He is really a 6 inning pitcher for the most part--again, IMO.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 7:40:56 PM #

Choo is improving his road BA with his second hit of the day

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 7:42:08 PM #

Choo's two out single is all the REds get in the second. Still 1-0 lead mid 2


.genewv
.genewv
5/15/2013 7:42:44 PM #

Snacks powdered that ball to CF.

Nice hitting by Choo on a 0-2 pitch. What's new?

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 7:43:31 PM #

Reds ‏@Reds 15s

Reds are 19-6 whey they score first. Lead, 1-0, bottom of the second inning.

and the Marlins are 0-9 with the roof open (as it is tonight)

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 7:50:47 PM #

after the first two batters get on base, Leake gets a GBDP and a K to keep the score 1-0 Reds end of two; 33 pitches

.genewv
.genewv
5/15/2013 7:51:05 PM #

Nice recovery after the walk and a bad 0-2 pitch by Leake--in part thanks to his IF and the DP.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 7:56:16 PM #

and BP gets his second hit of the game

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:01:01 PM #

BRuce doubles, but BP is caught in a rundown between 2/3 on XP's ground ball, so still runners on 2/3 but now two outs

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:02:28 PM #

Bases loaded now for Snacks on the IBB to Hannahan

.genewv
.genewv
5/15/2013 8:04:13 PM #

Lots of opportunities going by the wayside.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:04:16 PM #

and for the second time in only 3 innings, the Reds leave the bases loaded; Sanabia with 62 pitches
1-0 Reds mid 3

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:08:16 PM #

typical "easy" play for BP for the second out

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:11:29 PM #

Leake needs to stay out of Hannahan's way, as that is the second IF base hit that possibly could have been an out if Leake had not cut in front of Hannahan

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:12:25 PM #

fortunately, the Marlins leave the bases loaded and do not score in the third; 46 PC, 1-0 lead

Amy
Amy
5/15/2013 8:17:21 PM #

CHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

River Otter
River Otter
5/15/2013 8:17:53 PM #

Ah, Ah, Ah, CHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Amy
Amy
5/15/2013 8:22:04 PM #

I guess Votto's a real Ohioan.

.genewv
.genewv
5/15/2013 8:25:23 PM #

Yep. Of course, Canadians are much worse than anyone south of their border.

.genewv
.genewv
5/15/2013 8:24:26 PM #

Thats a little better.

Got to be gone a little while. back in later.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:32:48 PM #

Had to step away for a bit and see that the lead has increased to 3-0; how did that happen?

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:33:17 PM #

just as I type that, Kelch tells me Choo hit a HR

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:36:26 PM #

3-0 Reds mid 5

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:45:34 PM #

It's a big OF, but XP just doesn't look smooth out there

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:46:35 PM #

but the double is left on and Leake is through 5 with 67 pitches and a 3-0 lead

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:49:38 PM #

anyone here?

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:53:49 PM #

Ah, CHOOOOOO!!!

Ashlandateam2
Ashlandateam2
5/15/2013 8:54:35 PM #

I don't know where the money needs to come from. But I know Choo needs to be given whatever it is he wants to stay here the rest of his career.

Amy
Amy
5/15/2013 8:57:01 PM #

Kickstarter

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:55:06 PM #

Reds increase their lead to 4-0 on Choo's 9th HR of the year and second of the game; I am guessing Sanabia is done after six innings and 109 pitches

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:59:11 PM #

do you score that 3-3-1?

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 8:59:25 PM #

Hey, I said it first, Welsh!

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 9:00:36 PM #

an easy sixth for Leake; 77 pitches and a 4-0 lead

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 9:07:04 PM #

Choo and Votto are now 6-8 tonight; followed by a BPDP

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 9:07:40 PM #

and Bruce gets his second hit of the night

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 9:09:56 PM #

Reds get a couple of hits, but no runs in the 7th; 4-0 lead mid 7

River Otter
River Otter
5/15/2013 9:11:45 PM #

I've been watching while trying to multi-task.  Reds looking good so far.

River Otter
River Otter
5/15/2013 9:12:05 PM #

I love Amy's Kickstarter idea to keep Choo

Amy
Amy
5/15/2013 9:14:28 PM #

If every single Reds fan tossed in $20, it might work!

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 9:20:49 PM #

Marshall coming in with two out and two on in the 7th.  Excellent start for Leake, as he will get the Reds third straight quality start no matter what happens to the two runners on when he left.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 9:23:07 PM #

Doc: only one BB for Leake tonight, no Frazier so far,Bruce with two hits. Choo did not get the night off, but has three hits (including 2 HRs)

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 9:25:46 PM #

and Marshall gets a K to keep the shutout for Leake; 4-0 Reds end of 7

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 9:28:05 PM #

rpa ‏@rpa44 3m

I need to sync up the FUCK GOD DAMNIT FUCK Votto audio to the Archer “pirate virus” video and and music, then put a 60 min loop on YouTube.


this had to have happened during the innings I was doing something else

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 9:29:14 PM #

Mr. R ‏@MisterRedlegs 1m

#Reds Leake in last 3 starts: 19.3 IP, 26 hits, 6 ER, 2 walks, 15 KOs, 2.79 ERA. Ain't losing his spot.


I agree with MRL on this

.genewv
.genewv
5/15/2013 9:29:47 PM #

Things just seem to be easing along.

Glad to see Dusty lift Leake there. he can fall apart quickly, just like BA, because they can only fool hitters so many times in one night.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 9:33:13 PM #

Reds down in order in the top of the 8th; 4-0

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 9:45:46 PM #

another scoreless inning as LeCure puts the Marlins down in the 8th; still 4-0

River Otter
River Otter
5/15/2013 9:49:22 PM #

I see the score hasn't changed since the last time I checked in

DocProc
DocProc
5/15/2013 9:51:59 PM #

Coming in late.  I see my suggestion to give Choo the night off wasn't a good one.  I'm delighted to be wrong.  Smile

River Otter
River Otter
5/15/2013 9:57:46 PM #

Apparently the Marlins were the cure to get him back on track

River Otter
River Otter
5/15/2013 9:53:30 PM #

I thought I heard Votto cursing when he missed a pitch, but assumed it was someone with Tourette's in the crowd.  Apparently it's so quiet in Marlins stadium you can clearly hear the batter.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 9:56:33 PM #

still 4-0 with the bottom of the ninth coming up

River Otter
River Otter
5/15/2013 9:58:33 PM #

Amy - You can put me down for $20

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 10:06:07 PM #

Chapman making things more suspenseful than the Marlins deserve here in the ninth--let's get a quick 3rd out here

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 10:10:40 PM #

And this one belongs to the Reds!!

and guess what full year pace the Reds are on with this win?  97

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 10:11:19 PM #

and a slider is what it finally took to get Dietrich out (even Chapman can't live entirely on his fastball)

River Otter
River Otter
5/15/2013 10:11:51 PM #

Nice slider from Chapman to finally K Dietrich.  Good to see the Reds taking care of business against these crappy teams.

DocProc
DocProc
5/15/2013 10:14:52 PM #

Woo hoo!  Woo choo!

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 10:15:44 PM #

nice cheer!

.genewv
.genewv
5/15/2013 10:14:53 PM #

That was one nasty slider.

I still think he needs to throw it more often. JMO.

Won't be around again tomorrow gang, meeting a old friend for golf, got a Gideon Meeting tomorrow night.

Bring the brooms tomorrow.

Frank_Robinsons_Ghost
Frank_Robinsons_Ghost
5/15/2013 10:17:07 PM #

YAYYAYAYAYAY!

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 10:17:48 PM #

John Fay ‏@johnfayman 4m

Final: #Reds 4, Marlins 0. WP-Leake 3-2. Season-high 5th straight win. 8 over at 24-16. Didn't get to 8 over until 6/2 in'12

ashlandateam
ashlandateam
5/15/2013 10:21:52 PM #

Have I mentioned that I love Mike Leake? Because I sure love Mike Leake.

My head still says Cingrani needs to stay. But Mike Leake has my heart.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 10:23:36 PM #

I see that Leake's ERA is down to 3.72

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 10:27:25 PM #

Whatever happens between Leake and Cingrani this year, both will be needed next year when I assume Arroyo will be gone.  As you know, my opinion is that Cingrani needs to spend the time in AAA learning/perfecting secondary pitches.

ashlandateam
ashlandateam
5/15/2013 10:33:40 PM #

So here's the deal on Leake - he's everything I love about the game of baseball. He's tough, he's gritty, he bends and doesn't break. Just when you think he's terrible, he pulls a rabbit out of a hat; just when you think he's great, he shows he's human. I mean it when I say I absolutely love watching him pitch every fifth day.

But there's this - his career is easily explained by saying that he pitches well against bad teams and poorly against good ones. Look at his career ERAs against the teams who have been good since he's been in the league:

St. Louis - 4.66
Los Angeles - 5.64
Milwaukee - 4.91
Philadelpha - 7.41
Washington - 5.53
Arizona - 7.94

And look at his ERAs against teams that have been bad since he's been in the league:

Pittsburgh - 3.54
Chicago - 3.44
Houston - 3.76
New York - 1.65
Miami - 2.21

Outside of Atlanta (2.33) and San Diego (his one start was 1.2 inning, 5 run disaster) there really aren't any exceptions to this rule. As good as St. Louis is (and as hard as it's going to be to keep up with them), I don't think it's wise to run Leake out there against the better teams in this league when you potentially have a better candidate.

I'm obviously not saying just ditch the guy - he's my favorite player for Pete's sake, and his career ERA of 4.24 is good enough to make him as good as 90% of the fifth starters in this league. But 530 innings into his career, we know what he is - a guy who can win against the lower tier teams in the league and shouldn't be put out on the mound against the upper tier teams.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 10:49:34 PM #

I don't think it's wise to run Leake out there against the better teams in this league when you potentially have a better candidate.

I agree with that sentence; what I don't agree with is that Tony Cingrani is there yet.  A perfect example is what happened in his last start, where he went all of four innings. Once the Brewers (a decent hitting team) saw him for the second time and timed his fastballs, they were all over him.The first time through the lineup, they had two singles (and one of those got picked off first).  The second time through the lineup went like this (and he did not make it entirely through the order twice, facing a total of 17 batters with his 85 pitches):
HR
HR
base on balls
single
GBDP (really nice play started by Frazier)
base on balls
K

That is why he needs another pitch or two--good hitters will hit fastballs if they know that that is all that they will see in the strike zone

bjsReds1
bjsReds1
5/15/2013 11:13:25 PM #

That's not necessarily true.  The best and hardest pitch to hit in baseball is a well located fastball that is deceptive and has movement.  When the best pitchers in baseball are at their best it's because of locating their fastball.  While I'm not disagreeing with you on his working on his secondary pitches, late in the season if a start is needed whether it be the postseason or not against a team like St. Louis or Washington, I want Cingrani out there instead of Leake.  If Cingrani is on his game, he's the guy every time over Leake, inexperienced, lack of secondary pitches or not.

With that being said, the Reds are right in that the appropriate move right now is to send Cingrani down and manage his innings at AAA.  Bring him back in time to put him on the postseason roster.  Hope like heck you don't need a 5th starter and let Cingrani pitch out of the pen in September and October.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:35:30 PM #

I agree with you for the most part--I keep saying that *right now* (as in who goes down when Cueto returns)Cingrani is not the total pitcher he needs to be. There is no reason he can't work on his secondary pitches in AAA and come back up later in the year (September if everyone stays healthy) and hopefully force playoff roster decisions with his performance.  

Leake is doing quite a bit better than you would think based upon all the calls for him to go to AAA and I believe that he actually gives the Reds a better chance of winning throughout the long season than a rookie who throws too many pitches per inning (and taxe a bullpen in doing so) and has only one pitch. Cingrani definitely has a higher ceiling, but he's not there yet and I do not want to see him Homered by bringing him up before he has all the tools working.

ashlandateam
ashlandateam
5/15/2013 10:58:21 PM #

Baseball Reference keeps track of situational hitting. It's pretty neat. This year, the Reds have been good at three random things:

* Pinch Hits - 18. This is good for second in baseball.

* Grounded into Double Play Percentage - 9%. This is good for 5th lowest in all of baseball (or, 5th best if you prefer).

* Percentage of Time a Runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs scores - 57%. This is tops in not just the NL, but in the entire majors.

That's all fun, and a bit unexpected.

Here's more, if you're interested: www.baseball-reference.com/.../...al-batting.shtml

River Otter
River Otter
5/16/2013 9:57:56 AM #

Good stuff.  

Welsh also noted last night that while the Reds were virtually tied for the lead in the NL in runs scored, they were also first in runners left in scoring position.  The good news is that they're getting lots of guys on base.  

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:02:14 PM #

and the Reds are 4th best in ERA in MLB as well(and tied for 3rd in WHIP as well at 1.20--nos. 1 and 2 are 1.19, so they are very close to being the best in baseball in this category; they are tied with the Cardinals)

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:06:13 PM #

Tony Cingrani and Bronson Arroyo are tied for most HRs allowed on the Reds staff; it has taken Cingrani 24.2 fewer innings to accomplish this than it has taken Arroyo (4 have been hit off him in his last 8 innings pitched)

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:26:04 PM #

from Fay:
Leake (3-2) has a 2.75 ERA over his last five starts. He's gone at least six innings in all five.

I think the perceived advantage at the present time of Cingrani over Leake is not really there. This five game span coincides with Cingrani's entire major league starting career to date. His ERA in that time frame is 2.89 and he has not been allowed to go out get scored on in the eighth inning as Leake was two starts ago.

Mary
Mary
5/15/2013 11:27:16 PM #

more from that article:

Leake, according to conventional wisdom, has been competing with Tony Cingrani to keep a spot when No. 1 starter Johnny Cueto returns from the disabled list. Baker said that's not the case.

"Who's talking about keeping his spot?" Baker said. "He's doing better than some of the guys on our staff. I don't understand why it comes down to Leake and somebody else. Leakie's pitched well. He's taken us deep into games.

RedFaced
RedFaced
5/16/2013 9:37:41 AM #

Really Leake's numbers should be even better in that stretch as Dusty clearly erred in not pulling him in his previous start an inning earlier.  Instead Leake gave up 2 more runs without recording an out in the 8th and a close game turned into a lopsided loss.  

I like Cingrani a LOT.  I've been bragging about him since last year and I think long-term he will be the better pitcher but I do feel it will better serve his development and the the team if he goes back to AAA and Leake stays.  

Competition is good, I am not sure Leake would have performed this well had there not been a threat of losing his spot in the back of his mind.    

Jabberwocky
Jabberwocky
5/16/2013 9:56:09 AM #

The humor of a 17-year old:

I lost my glass after dinner last night.  While looking for it, I'm wandering through the house, retracing my steps and asking myself, "Where did my glass go?"  Daughter, upon hearing this, quipped, "I dunno, Dad, Scotland?"

(Glascow, Scotland-geddit?)

I know, GROAN!

Mary
Mary
5/16/2013 9:56:56 AM #

that's as bad as Dawg's joke the other day

River Otter
River Otter
5/16/2013 10:06:29 AM #

But clever!

Mary
Mary
5/16/2013 10:03:01 AM #

can't you just see what Tony Cingrani can be when has one of these (or something similar)?  Chapman was getting frustrated by Dietrich fouling off 100+ mph pitches time after time, so he changed speed for this beauty and got the third out

Eye on Baseball ‏@EyeOnBaseball 54m

GIF: Aroldis Chapman and the perfect slider http://cbsprt.co/16kkOb6  via @cbssports

DocProc
DocProc
5/16/2013 10:21:24 AM #

Today's starter sent.

DocProc
DocProc
5/16/2013 10:52:00 AM #

New thread is up.

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