Well last night's trade has us all stirred up and with the last starter getting long in the posts I thought we'd better start up another new one. So let's kick the trade discussions up another notch.
12/12/2012 10:18:44 AM #
His splits against lefties are still significantly better than Stubbs. He has a lifetime OBP of 338 against lefties. His power numbers stink, and he has a lower BA, but against lefties, he still gets on base a lot.
btalbert25 |
12/12/2012 10:22:26 AM #
The Defense is a legit concern, but we aren't replacing Willie Mays with Willie Mays Hayes out there. We're replacing an average or slightly above average CF with a below average CF. I really just don't think Stubbs was as excellent in CF as people make him sound. He wasn't Griffey in his prime, Tori Hunter, or Mike Trout out there. He was a good CF, not great.
12/12/2012 10:36:20 AM #
msn.foxsports.com/.../cincinnati-reds-get-shin-soo-choo-fulfill-offseason-wish-list-121112
12/12/2012 10:40:49 AM #
The one thing that kills me from this article is when they say Cozart has a fair glove. Have any of these evaluators actually watched the guy in the field? I'd say he was better than fair.
12/12/2012 10:52:29 AM #
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal Why I like the trade for #Indians and #Diamondbacks - and love it for the #Reds. Column: msn.foxsports.com/.../cincinnati-reds-get-shin-soo-choo-fulfill-offseason-wish-list-121112 … Retweeted by Jamie Ramsey
Mary |
12/12/2012 10:54:24 AM #
Katie L. @KLuebbering I have a super sad little girl in my house today. Best of luck #6! Then we all laughed bc she thought the new kids name was "since you chew" Retweeted by Sam LeCure love that malapropism!
12/12/2012 10:54:37 AM #
I really like the trade for many many reasons. #1 Stubbs needed to go both for him and the team imo. #2 The Reds leadoff spot produced a line of .208/.254/.327 in 2012. #3 The Reds keep all of their pitchings - I love having so many options. #4 The Reds needed another left-handed hitter in the lineup. #5 The Reds won't be paying a fortune for Choo - the $3.5 MM makes it about even. #6 The Reds get a decent, cheap, team controlled utility infielder in the deal. #7 at minimum 50 fewer strike-outs a season. I hate strike-outs. #8 Hamilton isn't ready yet. Other things to keep in mind: Choo was the best hitter in a weak Indians lineup. He'll be the 3rd or 4th best in the Reds lineup. You have to feel he'll get a lot more pitches to hit in the Reds lineup than he ever did in Cleveland. Choo hits to the opposite field consistently. Think Votto-esque. So he sprays the ball around and is likely to hit more HR's in GABP. Choo is in a contract year and is looking for a big payday at the end of the season. I think he has a monster year for the Reds.
RedFaced |
12/12/2012 10:58:54 AM #
Stubbs was terrible reading a ball in 2010 and 2011. He was significantly better in getting good jumps in 2012 but I've always felt his defense was slightly over-rated. Don't get me wrong, he was much better in 2012 but prior to that I felt Heisey was the better defender. Choo has been pretty good defensively in RF but for whatever reason the metrics hated him with a passion last year. I hate defensive metrics for one thing and I don't trust them but from what I've seen of Choo I think he's equal to Heisey in CF and likely better than Bruce. I should also point out that Choo did play a lot of CF while he was in the minors, especially early in his career so it's not a new position to him by any means.
12/12/2012 11:00:20 AM #
Saw this in a Fangraphs article: "Choo was 46 runs better at the plate than Stubbs in 2012 and 120 runs better over the past four seasons combined." I should also point out that Choo had a terrible, injury plagued 2011 and still out-produced Stubbs by 120 runs in that for year span. Here's a link the article - www.fangraphs.com/.../
12/12/2012 11:43:14 AM #
Although I have some concers about our CF defense, Choo isn't going to be 46 runs worse than Stubbs. Overall that's why I like this deal.
River Otter |
12/12/2012 11:03:54 AM #
Choo was listed by baseball-reference as having the 2nd highest range-factor for AL right-fielders in 2009 and 2011. He also led the AL in outfield assists in 2010 with 14 and had 11 in 2009. He has a cannon of an arm.
12/12/2012 11:08:36 AM #
I love our line-up now. Who is the weakest link now? Cozart? Yeah, I'll take that all day long and twice on Sunday.
12/12/2012 11:10:06 AM #
I also like the fact that I'll get to see Hamilton play a lot in Louisville this season. I was worried the Reds would be tempted to rush him along. Now he can get a full year in and develop slowly. I hope he has a heck of a year again.
12/12/2012 11:13:37 AM #
If he makes the improvements from 2012 to 2013 that he did from 2011 to 2012, the guy will be ready by 2014. I think he may just be that special kind of talent that could be ready.
12/12/2012 11:44:54 AM #
Not sure why we're paying 2 mil for this guy, but if that's the biggest thing to gripe about right now, I'm a happy man. www.mlbtraderumors.com/.../...n-jack-hannahan.html
DocProc |
12/12/2012 11:46:12 AM #
I guess the Reds needed another Indian
12/12/2012 11:49:00 AM #
Our bench is now totally set - there's honestly no room for Rolen now. Which is fine. But interesting that he'd sign before Rolen decided.
ashlandateam2 |
12/12/2012 11:50:38 AM #
I thought the same thing. Maybe a sign for Rolen?
12/12/2012 11:50:04 AM #
I agree--that Choo in CF is a slight concern. Fo me--it's just that--a slight concern. It's not like we are moving Adam Dunn to CF--and as someone else pointed out--Bruce and Ludwick on either side of Choo won't hurt. Over the last couple of weeks--almost everyone on here has said that they would practically put a floor lamp in CF if it could get on base more that Stubbs. Well--I'd like to think we did a bit better than that. I just think that despite losing Stubbs speed in the outfield--it's hard to say this wasn't overall a major upgrade.
Hebron Reds Fan |
12/12/2012 11:50:05 AM #
Assuming they sign this Hannahan guy for 2 mil, it sounds like the Reds will have few if any decisions to make in Spring Training (barring injury, god forbid). Maybe some shuffling middle relievers.
12/12/2012 11:52:15 AM #
As far as defense goes, I'd like to refer you to the worst defense in all of baseball last year: the Detroit Tigers. It seems that as bad as they were in the field, they still managed to do ok for themselves. And remember how terrible the Cardinals were in 2011 in the field? There seems to be a lot of evidence that points to defense simply being overrated.
12/12/2012 12:00:44 PM #
Defense and pitching are good for a team like the 2012 Reds who were an average offense. When you have a lineup like the Tigers last year, the Cards who won the World Series in 2011 and NLCS in 2012, you can afford to have a little bit of a downgrade in the lineup. While the Reds may not be the Tigers or Cards, they can go toe to toe with those teams. Choo, Phillips, and Votto will give any pitcher a hard time. All 3 of those guys are very capable of and have before come through with big hits against elite pitching. Those 3 at the top will put pressure on pitching staffs. We won't have the debacle that was the 2012 NLDS.
12/12/2012 12:00:48 PM #
I agree but Arroyo and Cueto rely on good D. Lots of balls in play for those guys
Champ Summers |
12/12/2012 11:59:09 AM #
OK...so I'm OK with Choo. Offensively I am super excited. This 2013 line up is as good as anyone's. Pitching is very solid in the rotation and the pen. I hope Masset is all the way back by ST.If he comes back as good we will be in good shape. Defense is my concern. I don't give a crap about defensive metrics. It's just not that reliable and the eyeball test is my measure. Stubbs was great at making up ground on balls he misread. He went back on a ball OK but he was very cautious coming in on a ball(something HZ is not). Luckily for Stubbs he was not Gomes and could play shallow to help that hole in his game. I have no idea what Choo is like instinctively. I watched the highlight reels out there and those give you some confidence but I'd like to see the bone head plays too. I am cautiously optimistic that the D won't suffer too much. The offense should make up for those deficiencies. Depth is now an issue in CF and SS. Donald and Hanahan are not everyday SS and are no better than Cairo or Valdez offensively. That is a concern. Big league club now has some LH bats. Choo, Paul, Bruce, Votto, Hanahan make us a more rounded team.
12/12/2012 11:59:36 AM #
The Hannahan signing does seem to signal that Rolen won't be back. I have mixed feelings about that. He was pretty good the second half of the season and could still play pretty good defense at 3rd. I also hated for him to end his career the way he did.
12/12/2012 12:00:08 PM #
ctrent @ctrent the hannahan deal probably means rolen will retire. he'd put #reds 40-man roster at 40 (not that they can't move, but still) ctrent @ctrent told by people i trust i may be wrong about rolen… interesting...
12/12/2012 12:00:56 PM #
lots
12/12/2012 12:01:34 PM #
A lot of people are viewing this trade in a vacuum - Choo VS Stubbs, etc. That doesn't tell the whole story. When the leadoff hitter - the guy who comes to the plate most often in a season - gets out 3/4 of the time, that has a trickle down effect on the other hitters, especially on a team in the NL, where three of those ABs are preceded by the pitcher probably getting out. Point is, you can't just take Choo's numbers, compare them to Stubbs and call it a day. You have to consider Phillips and Votto getting more opportunities to bat at all, let alone with RISP; you have to consider his walks, taxing the arm of starting pitchers; you have to consider his splits, and how many times managers will burn their LOOGY on him instead lf Votto or Bruce - and hoe many extra ABs Phillips will get against those LOOGYs. This is a huge boost for the entire lineup, and I don't tgink that boost is easily measured in Choo's stats alone.
12/12/2012 12:06:15 PM #
Yep.
12/12/2012 12:09:07 PM #
That's kind of what I was getting at last night when I asked about RBI's and WAR. To me, Choo being in the lineup ahead of BP and Votto, will end up with their values increasing. Essentially, sure Choo's WAR was higher than Stubbs, but his value won't be easily quantifiable by numbers. As Ash said he's going to have a trickle down effect. So maybe his WAR is 3 next year, but Maybe Phillips is 6, Votto is 9 or 10, Ludwick gets 4 or 5, etc etc etc. He has far more value to this lineup than that 3 WAR he'll probably have.
12/12/2012 12:02:31 PM #
I also have to say that I'm stoked about the fact that the Reds should be excellent for at least the next 2 to 3 years. Assuming that Hamilton is able to crack the starting by 2014, the Reds will have every position in capable hands through 2014. They also have most of their starting pitchers locked up until 2015. Unless they get killed by injuries, the Reds should be pretty good for the next several years. Walt needs to get credit for that.
12/12/2012 12:03:28 PM #
Reply jail has no logic. Doc, even though we are pretty full I'd like to put a few things on my minor league signings wish list I still want A true SS for AAA a couple Lefty specialists a veteran Starter one more utility player with a little pop(H Rod might already be that guy)
12/12/2012 12:07:44 PM #
Just bought my tix for the March 15 game at Goodyear. Fourth row from the field.
12/12/2012 1:16:10 PM #
Jamie Ramsey @Jamieblog Since it's that time of the year.....#Reds have a minor leaguer named "Yoel Noel." I looked but couldn't find him, but that is a strange name
12/12/2012 1:30:09 PM #
I wonder if he's related to Nerlens Noel who is a freshman for UK this year?
12/12/2012 1:28:54 PM #
I failed to acknowledge the fact that yes the Reds are very likely to get a draft pick compensation for Choo when he doesn't resign with the team. But let's not forget how the compensatory pick is determined now: "a team will only be able to receive compensation if it makes its former player an offer at least equal to the average of the 125 richest contracts" I'm assuming this is based upon the annual avg salary of the top 125 contracts. So the Reds could offer Choo a 1 yr contract and he would likely turn it down so he could sign a multi-year deal. At least I'm guessing this is how it will work. FYI, in June Baseball Prospectus reported this figure to be $12MM.
12/12/2012 1:31:07 PM #
I'm quite sure they will work this out with Choo and Boras. Choo WON'T want to stay for one year at 12 mil.
12/12/2012 1:32:04 PM #
Just to be clear, I have no doubt that the Reds CF defense will be slightly worse this year, like Otter stated though I don't think there is any chance it will be anywhere close to 46 runs worse.
12/12/2012 1:44:55 PM #
"Scott Rolen has suggested to the Reds that he might want to return for another season and the team would be “more than happy” to give him a chance, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports." Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#PcdLii6iz4eVmRqW.99
12/12/2012 1:47:11 PM #
Ugh. I don't like this at all.
12/12/2012 1:55:20 PM #
Same old "if" with Rolen, but if he is healthy he can probably still contribute pretty well. The problem is, if Rolen comes back, and with the guy they got last night and Hannahan, where does that leave Frazier?
12/12/2012 1:58:17 PM #
where does that leave Frazier? starting at third base
12/12/2012 2:05:21 PM #
I agree. I think Rolen would understand he's returning in a part-time role.
12/12/2012 2:17:10 PM #
So, we'll have 4, 3rd basemen on the team? I realize the other part of the trade last night is a utility guy, but 3rd is one of his positions, Hannahan is more 3rd base than anything else, and Rolen.
12/12/2012 4:29:34 PM #
If Rolen starts the season on the team, Hannahan will be in AAA -- waiting for the injury call-up. Donald will back up second and short.
Frank_Robinsons_Ghost |
12/12/2012 1:56:23 PM #
Best part of this trade is what Ash mentioned above about helping the rest of the order. BP has become a .300 hitter never having a steady slot in the order and constantly changing his approach. Now what can he do? Votto won an MVP and has been the best hitter in baseball with inconsistent protection and few men on base in front of him. Now what will we see when Choo/BP are on base 75% of the time he comes to bat? This trade makes our MVP and all star 2nd baseman much better. It also likely takes a lot of pressure off of Jay Bruce, which will allow him to relax his behind when it matters. This is very, very scary for the rest of the league. I get the defensive question, but it's not like the Reds are all of a sudden becoming the Cardinals or Tigers on defense. CF is very important, but even so, the Reds still remain one of the better defenses in baseball. It's just one position, even as important as it is.
bjsReds1 |
12/12/2012 2:26:33 PM #
AAT made his most cogent well thought out point(s) in some time. Thought it was great and hopefully very accurate. I know most are thrilled with this offensively but if you weren't read that post.
12/12/2012 2:52:35 PM #
he was doubling almost every AB...it seemed that way at least.
12/12/2012 2:10:06 PM #
I would still welcome Rolen back, especially now that Stubbs is gone. Honestly, I think Rolen may want to come back because he's excited about the direction of this team and just wants to be a part of it. I don't see how you deny him that. Pay him a million bucks, let him spend half the year on the DL, pinch hit and play stellar D when he's available, and the rest of the time he serves as another coach and mentor. Then next year after the Reds win the World Series, Dusty is glorified and rides off into the sunset after finally winning the big one, Speier is named manager, and Rolen is named Reds bench coach. Seriously, this isn't about setting a roster for Walt. Hannahan is a good defensive player with some pop. I suspect Donald is ok defensively as well. Donald had a bad year last year but overall has way better numbers than Valdez. Walt is creating depth in case of injury, adding flexibility, and creating competition for roster spots. There are no guarantees a guy like Donald makes the roster, though I have no idea if he has options are not. Rolen may very well come back, but if Walt counted on Rolen being a healthy productive part of this team, he'd be an idiot. Walt isn't an idiot. Plus, what if Frazier regresses some, especially against RH pitching? That's where Hannahan and Donald come into play. All of these are smart moves that could pay off down the line.
12/12/2012 2:15:44 PM #
Sorry, I don't get Rolen coming back at all. We just spent 2 mil on a backup 3rd baseman. Rolen plays only one position. Frazier needs to play 150 games. Rolen looked old last season and made the last out of the year with a swing and miss on a meatball. Just retire, Scott.
12/12/2012 2:18:42 PM #
Derrick Goold @dgoold New at Bird Land. Does Choo make Reds the favorite to win Central?: Cincinnnati lands a huge upgrade for the top... http://bit.ly/XcAHGN
12/12/2012 2:43:03 PM #
I'm sorry. I just don't see how having HOF type defense and a potential for .280 with power on the bench makes you weaker. If Scotty is healthy and can stay healthy he is a better option off the bench than either of those other two guys. If he's not or doesn't there is a replacement at hand. I see this as a positive if Rolen comes back.
Dawginnaples |
12/12/2012 2:47:49 PM #
Yep... assuming Dusty doesn't play him four days a week ahead of Frazier like he did in September.
AshlandATeam |
12/12/2012 2:56:33 PM #
I agree, Dawg. It does show how little about the roster there is to even contemplate complaining about. Any one want to place bets on who replaces Stubbs as this year's target?
12/12/2012 2:58:24 PM #
.280 with power? Did you miss the past two seasons? Try .245 with diminishing power. What will that be if he only bats a few times a week? Worse yet, what would the difference be if he plays instead of Frazier?
12/12/2012 2:48:06 PM #
My goodness Joey had a 5.6 WAR and missed 53 games and wasn't 100% when he came back. What a season that guy was having before he went down.
12/12/2012 2:52:51 PM #
12/12/2012 2:54:55 PM #
To that Cardinal writer, I have one thing to add: The Reds MIGHT HAVE BEEN the favorites to win the division? MIGHT HAVE BEEN!? This wasn't a race last year - the Reds were the first team to clinch. And the Cardinals are losing their ace. No, really - Kyle Lohse was really, really good. Look at this: Cardinals record when Kyle Lohse started: 21-12 (.636) Cardinal record when anyone else started: 67-62 (.519) And WITH Lohse, they finished nine games back. Look, the Reds may flop next year. Anything is possible. But I don't see how an honest, objective look at this division - even before the Choo trade - would result in anyone other than the Reds winning this thing.
12/12/2012 2:58:26 PM #
well, he waswriting for the STL market after all
12/12/2012 3:04:40 PM #
I interpreted his article to imply that the Reds pitching staff may have overperformed last season since 3 of the starters had career high WARs and that the Cards since being injured underperformed. While, I agree Cueto probably won't have a better year neccessarily, I think Latos and Homer had their career high WARs because they are continuing to improve. Honestly, both of those guys could be 5 WAR type of pitchers when all is said and done. Leake and Arroyo, you pretty much know what you are going to get, and the wildcard will be Chapman. I think Broxton will give close to the same effort(maybe not as impressively) but it wouldn't take all that much for Chapman to have a better WAR than Leake as a 5th starter. I don't think the Reds over performed by WAR last year, I see it as 3 young pitchers coming into their own.
12/12/2012 3:02:02 PM #
Also, to the (also Cardinal) writer who said the Reds don't have 'depth' - really? Our outfield depth is Xavier Paul and Chris Heisey - a guy who hit .314 off the bench last year a guy who has never started and yet has been worth 4.4 WAR over the last three years. Our infield depth is Hannahan, Donald and maybe Rolen - three guys who were starters all of 2012. Our pitching depth is Mike Leake and Tony Cingrani - a guy who led the Reds to a 16-14 record in games that he started last year (a winning percentage of .533 - higher than what every Cardinal starter not named Lohse combined for last year) and a top prospect who's absolutely ready. No depth? Really? None of the above guys, in a perfect world, has much affect on the Reds 2013 season. These are guys who I'm comfortable going to war with if I need to. It's like people think Didi Gregorius was beating down the door to challenge Cozart. He wasn't - he was hitting .243 at AAA. And it's like people think Stubbs wasn't awful. He was.
12/12/2012 4:59:23 PM #
AAT has cracked the bottle open. Bruce is not better than Votto Bruce, Phillips and Choo may be close to equal...we'll see. Bruce will turn just 26 this year. Put some guys on in front of Bruce and it will get interesting. If Bruce evens out his streaky BS just a little he is the most explosive player on this team. Mentioning Ludwick or Frazier in the same breath is laughable.
12/12/2012 3:08:32 PM #
I think it's fair to say that Scotty had several ABs the last 2 years when he really didn't belong on the field due to his shoulder. That's why I said he could potentially be .280 with pop if healthy. If not, one of those other guys get those ABs. Neither of those guys has much of a shot at bettering Rolen's 2011-2012 numbers unless Dusty is really great at getting them into good matchups. The only truly reasonable concern is that Dusty would play him ahead of Todd Frazier, unjustifialy.
12/12/2012 3:13:00 PM #
That is my concern. I saw it played out in the last month of the season.
12/12/2012 3:12:22 PM #
Fay counts 27 players for 25 spots: cincinnati.com/.../#comments From his lists, I think Leake starts at AAA and Masset's on the DL (last word on him is that he was hoping to throw off a mound in ST).
12/12/2012 3:14:09 PM #
Mary, I completely, totally disagree that there has to be a 'target' on the 2013 team. You defended Stubbs. According to Baseball Reference, he posted a negative WAR last year - i.e. he was less valuable than an average guy in the minors. We had every right to complain about a guy with Drew Stubbs' talent and skillset hitting .213. In the past, the whipping boys have been guys like Taveras and Patterson and Stubbs - guys who deserved every bit of complaining they got, because they were terrible baseball players getting more ABs a game than Votto, Bruce, and Phillips. It's not like we went out of our way looking for something to complain about; the things to complain about were hitting in the top two in the order! Point is, I don't see anyone on this roster that's a weak link right now.
12/12/2012 3:16:28 PM #
I'm willing to bet that one target will evolve. I can even see someone like Jay Bruce getting that honor
12/12/2012 3:22:40 PM #
I agree. We all would of loved to have seen Stubbs work. He's a good dude, has friends in the clubhouse, and had a lot of tools that would of made him ideal, if he were any good. I really believe we got a leadoff guy like Choo last year at the trade deadline, there's a good chance we go REALLY deep in the playoffs. As is, with virtually no offense we took the world champ to game 5 of the NLDS.
12/12/2012 3:25:29 PM #
No offense and no ace.
12/12/2012 3:29:21 PM #
There will be a target because that's the nature of fans, ESPECIALLY in Cincinnati. I could see Bruce being a target, but it would be ignorant. There was a long long list of players who actually would of made the team better had the replaced Stubbs.(which evidently included Valdez and Heisey)You would be hard pressed to find many people around the league you could plug in for Bruce and actually make this team better. I actually think it will be Cozart. I don't know that his BA and OBP will ever be significantly better than what he gave us last year. Considering he'll be in the 7 hole though, I'll take that production all day long out of my 7 hole hitter. He'd be one of the best 7 hole guys in the MLB. Since he'll probably be around or possibly under 250 though, people will pile on the guy. ESPECIALLY if DiDi tears it up in Arizona.
12/12/2012 3:31:39 PM #
Didi hit .243 in AAA last year. He's not going to immediately tear anything up in Arizona.
12/12/2012 3:32:47 PM #
I agree, I'm just thinking Cozart will end up being the target, especially if DiDi plays well. First time he makes a WebGem people will be like TERRIBLE TRADE.
12/12/2012 3:40:30 PM #
JIM BOWDEN @JimBowdenESPNxm Walt Jocketty told us Chapman was told to come to ST as a starter but might start the year in pen then start like ATL/Medlen last yr SXM Can't see if JB's lips are moving, so can't tell if this is a lie or not
12/12/2012 3:46:42 PM #
I actually think this is an outstanding idea. Better be Medlen than Strasburg, right? And Leake wasn't that bad, right? Right.
12/12/2012 4:45:19 PM #
I agree. I'm pretty sure I also read somebody else who got a similar quote from Jocketty a week or so. When it's comes to Bowden, also good to get back-up confirmation.
12/12/2012 4:35:10 PM #
AAT -- in response to a post of yours above. There will be a target on the 2013 team . . . this is Cincinnati you are talking about. It would take years of sustained success to wipe the reflexive negativity and scapegoating from our fanbase.
12/12/2012 3:17:27 PM #
Also, I think I've found my favorite stat of the offseason: In 2012, the Reds winning percentage with Mike Leake - who just lost his job - was .533. In 2012, the Cardinals' winning percentage without Kyle Lohse - who won't be a Cardinal next year - is .519. The Reds worst was better than what the Cardinals are going into next year with.
12/12/2012 3:19:32 PM #
I'll go way out on a limb and say this year's goat will be a member of the pen. Maybe, Arredondo?
12/12/2012 3:23:52 PM #
www.fangraphs.com/.../ Good stuff on Choo's defense, rightly bringing up that Heisey is there and very good for the late innings. I could see Dusty going from Ludwick/Choo/Bruce to Choo/Heisey/Bruce in the seventh inning of a lot of games this year.
12/12/2012 3:36:28 PM #
You know what would be funny? If Walt's right and Choo is totally fine in center field. No one seems to be including that as even a remote possibility.
12/12/2012 3:41:02 PM #
I am.
12/12/2012 3:51:23 PM #
Masset will be the goat next year. Bank it.
12/12/2012 3:52:02 PM #
Or perhaps Broxton when he doesn't close out each game with 3 K's.
12/12/2012 3:54:42 PM #
I think we're defining 'goat' differently. To me, a 'goat' is a player who's unjustifiably blamed for not living up to some perceived expectation. Jay Bruce is a prime candidate, because he's a damn fine baseball player that no one should rightfully complain about, given the fact that he's roughly the 5th or 6th best player in the Reds' lineup right now (depending on how exactly you feel about Frazier). If people complain about a guy like Masset, it'll be because he sucks. Period. Just like Stubbs, Patterson, Taveras, etc. Those guys aren't 'goats' - they're bad baseball players who fans of a good team shouldn't have to watch. So yeah, Masset may be complained about next year - but if he is, I'm gonna guess he deserves it.
12/12/2012 3:56:11 PM #
If Rolen comes back then Jason Donald plays AAA until needed. Hannahan is the lefty off the bench so he's staying. Masset may not be ready by start of season and if he is and if he is performing then Simon may be out or some other reliever sent to AAA. Leake is likely out of the rotation also. Doesn't seem too difficult to get to 25 men to me. I don't see the Reds making any more moves though.
12/12/2012 4:07:24 PM #
I'm hoping the Choo Choo doesn't turn out to be Thomas the Tank Engine. I'll still predict 100 wins next year, and I hope I'm low. I hope Stubby succeeds in Cle...ahem...Cl...ugh...that place up North there. I would have liked to see what Didi could do here, but I know he'll be fine up there too. I'm excited for the season. 100 or so days away.
Jabberwocky |
12/12/2012 4:07:28 PM #
Actually, I think I just said something out loud that I should post on its own: Jay Bruce may be the sixth best position player on this team. He's not better than Votto. He's not better than Phillips. He's not better than Choo. He might not be better than Ludwick. He might not be better than Frazier. This guy is a two time All-Star and won the NL Silver Slugger award in right field. And he's somewhere between the 4th and 6th best player in our lineup. We're winning 100 games next year, folks. You can mark THAT down. And I think the Nats/Reds NLCS could be one for the freaking ages.
12/12/2012 4:26:02 PM #
I agree with you, but you better sacrifice a virgin or a chicken or something to appease the injury gods.
12/12/2012 4:35:00 PM #
How about a virgin chicken? How can you check for such a thing to ensure what we're offering is truly pure?
12/12/2012 4:25:53 PM #
You know who might be pushing Brucie and company a little next year for offensive prestige? Haniraco! Ryan has been a beast for year and a half,now and I think a little mental break for Devin could be all that is necessary to get him back to his projections. This year could be a breakout for he and Cozie.
12/12/2012 4:38:29 PM #
Someone on MLBTR during a chat today said St. Louis is the favorite for the division. Never mind that the Reds won it by 9 games last year. Never mind that the Reds are better today than they were in 2012. Never mind that the Cardinals have lost their ace. People are dumb.
12/12/2012 4:50:34 PM #
They are depending on Carpenter or Wainwright who are 2 years older and major injuries away from great seasons. Garcia is what he is. I really don't think he's every going to be a true Ace or even number 2 quality. They also need that whole lineup to repeat what they did offensively last year. I really think they believe the Reds played way over their heads last year. they are banking on the Reds players regressing and injuries creeping in. The thing is, I don't believe the Reds players are going to regress any, and while it's true we were very lucky injury wise last year, there's no reason to think we won't be again next year. The team is really young. Where St. Louis is old. What are the odds Beltran stays healthy all next year? Carpenter too? Fat Elvis too. Molina takes a lot of wear and tear and he's 30 now. If their fans are banking on Reds taking a step back as well as injuries creeping in, I say they have more concerns than we do in that regard.
12/12/2012 4:57:41 PM #
Also, this needs to be repeated over and over again: KYLE LOHSE WAS REALLY FREAKING GOOD. It's like everyone just ignores that a guy who went 16-3 isn't on the team anymore. Chris Carpenter ain't going 16-3, and if he does, that puts them right where they were last year. It's just asinine. I get that the Reds had that great run in July, but guess what? We also had our best freaking player miss 50 games. Also, you could shave 6 wins off the team and we'd have won the division by the same margin the Nationals did. The Cardinals aren't that good - they're behind LA/SF/WAS/CIN/ATL at least in the NL pecking order. At least.
12/12/2012 4:43:55 PM #
Now I'm so excited about baseball that I'm ging to go watch Ken Burns Baseball some more. How long 'til pitchers and catchers report?
12/12/2012 5:17:45 PM #
76 Days!
Statmom |
12/13/2012 8:27:46 AM #
I think they report on Feb. 14. Two months from tomorrow!
12/12/2012 5:00:32 PM #
AAT has cracked the bottle open. Bruce is not better than Votto Bruce, Phillips and Choo may be close to equal...we'll see. Bruce will turn just 26 this year. Put some guys on in front of Bruce and it will get interesting. If Bruce evens out his streaky BS just a little he is the most explosive player on this team. Mentioning Ludwick or Frazier in the same breath is laughable
12/12/2012 5:04:40 PM #
Well... I'm assuming that he is who he is, streakiness and all. And according to Fangraphs last year, Bruce - 2.4 WAR Ludwick - 2.8 WAR Frazier - 2.8 WAR So yeah. I'm operating under 2013 only since that's how long we'll have Choo. And if last year's forms hold true, then Bruce wasn't as valuable as either Ludwick or Frazier. Ludwick may not repeat in 2013, but I'm all in on Frazier; I think he's gonna hit 35 homers this year himself. Now, Bruce has a 7 WAR season or five in him. He has that kind of talent. But if he just settles in as the guy he is, he's an All-Star, and he's still behind on the pecking order. I'm going off of last year here. But it's not as laughable as you think. I'm taking that as a compliment to Ludwick and Frazier, not an insult to Bruce, though.
12/12/2012 5:07:48 PM #
Also, I love Bruce. My point isn't at all a knock on him; it's a comment on how deep this lineup really is, that an All-Star and Silver Slugger winner is - maybe - the fifth or sixth best guy in the lineup.
12/12/2012 5:15:26 PM #
still he's not the 5th or 6th best player. He's just not. War Schmar...he is not.
12/12/2012 5:12:17 PM #
Everything is not measured in WAR. I know you love it but you are not considering the arch of a player. I just have to watch all three guys and you know who's better. Ludwick is streaky too and is 34 Frazier has never been consistent and looked like the guy who frustrated the reds during his years in minors in September and October. Bruce is 25 and has all the tools and has progressed each year. He may not be the 5 tool guy we hoped we'd get when he was 21 but he's growing and has an amazing ceiling. Last year both frazier and Ludwick were as valuable in their own ways. Next year it may be someone else. Bruce will keep getting better. Ludwick is my selection for dog. We will be hating his 2 year contract at multiple times this season. He will act as a buzz kill between Votto and Bruce when things are going bad for him.
12/12/2012 5:28:13 PM #
You know, Bruce's power numbers have gone up each year since he joined the team, some of it is from getting more AB's the last 3 years than his first 2 years, but some of it is that he's just maturing. I'm going to make a prediction that he gets 40 doubles and 40 homeruns next year. If he hits those numbers, which based on the increases he's made the last 3 years in both categories isn't an outlandish belief, He's probably going to have a 4 or 5 WAR I'd imagine(Again, I really don't know how WAR is calculated but it would up his slugging pretty significantly and his OPS)Anyway, I just think that's the kind of season he's sitting on. He really and truly wants his BA to go up too. I don't think he's a guy to just say that. I would be surprised if he didn't come to camp ready to hit this year. He's learned from Rolen and Votto how to improve. Last year, he came to spring training in better shape too, so he's putting in the work to better himself. At first I didn't believe Ludwick would be able to duplicate last year's numbers, but now I believe he could exceed them. Votto is pissed, and I think we'll see the best season he's ever had. I believe Bruce is going to have a monster year too. The guy batting between those freaks is going to benefit greatly.
12/12/2012 5:29:43 PM #
I wasn't going on a rant there either, more thinking out loud about Bruce. I agree with you mostly, I think he's the 4th best in the lineup. I do think he's better than Frazier and Ludwick, but Votto, Phillips, and Choo are better.
12/12/2012 5:14:07 PM #
all we han hope for is that the streaky guys like BP, Ludwick, Bruce and frazier can find themselves hitting at the same time for a few different windows. September was awful watching all those streaky guys get cold all at once.
12/12/2012 5:16:36 PM #
when will my kids learn to drive themselves home from aftercare? its so far away
12/12/2012 5:22:26 PM #
....uh, they probably won't need aftercare by the time the have their driver's licenses
12/12/2012 7:20:30 PM #
thank god only 9 more years
12/13/2012 8:08:36 AM #
Then the REAL fun begins!
12/12/2012 5:26:15 PM #
Well Champ, I'm not going to argue with you because everything you said is correct. All I'm saying is that arguably, in 2012, Ludwick and Frazier were better than a very good Jay Bruce, and that could be the case in 2013. Regardless, my point is this: the Reds are going to be really freaking good, no matter who in the lineup is better. The lineup truly doesn't have any holes in it; our worst player is a guy who had more than 50 extra base hits after all, right? Right. That's all I was trying to say.
12/12/2012 7:26:53 PM #
The line up could be very potent. It could be ridiculous at times. Its exciting. I thought we were speculating. Sure in 2012 Ludwick and frazier carried this team on their backs for 2 months. In the line up next year he is the second or third best player, thats my prediction. If he is this team will score like no other.
12/12/2012 7:25:29 PM #
Just got a custom Christmas Card from my niece and her family. It's a photo of the whole group in Reds' attire with the caption "Our Reds Stockings were hung by the chimney with care." Freakin' Love it.
12/12/2012 7:26:38 PM #
Greatness.
12/12/2012 8:45:07 PM #
Eddie Vetter just killed "Comfortably Numb" on the relief concert. EPIC
12/12/2012 9:16:16 PM #
He kills everything. I'm still wanting more from his solo show last month. I'm recording it. I have to get through Santa Claus is Coming To Town first.
12/12/2012 8:46:51 PM #
According to MLB Network Choo has the 4th highest OPS+ of any right fielder in baseball since 2009.
12/12/2012 9:17:39 PM #
Lets hope he keeps it up
12/12/2012 10:37:39 PM #
Well, have had no internet connection for the last three days, very little TV reception, so, when I turned on the net this evening, all this stuff was news to me--all of it--been working like a slave remodeling house as well--again! First, I have read the last 2 threads, certainly don't have anything new to add--you folks have covered about all angles. That said, my 2 cents anyway: I have loved the way Choo plays ever since I saw him play the first time. He is one tough out at the plate--consummate pro. Seems the more pressure, the harder he is to get out. I absolutely love adding him to the lineup--I think it will do wonders for our offense . Brings not only his skills, but allows others to move to positions in the lineup more conducive to their natural skills--like BP, Cozart ( who I think is still our longtime answer at SS ), etc., etc. In the field, while not a all out speedster, Choo does a lot of small things, instinctive things, that make up for most of his lack of full blown speed. Speed is great, but not when that is most all of what you bring to the table--as we have witnessed. Baseball is a instinctive sport, one in which talent can be overcome by guys that just know how to play the game. Choo is that type of player. I have no idea what kind of club house presence he has, but, he certainly has field presence. I wish Stubbs well, really do, but am glad that experiment is over--from the Reds point of view. Who knows, might be better for him? Hope so. WJ has done what he always does--improve the team without giving up parts that are too important to present success--or, near future success. Simply one of the best GM's around--in a very covert way. I never worry about things he has control over. On Rolen, all know he is one of my favorite players of all time. That said, I won't be sad to see him retire. On the other hand, there is no way a presence of a Scott Rolen will upset me one bit. First, I love Frazier, what he brought to the team last year. He may well be the 3B of the future. That said, he is just average on defense, in my very opinionated mind, and, we have no way of knowing if he will produce this year like last year at the plate. His minor league stats, if I remember, were not as impressive overall as his ML successes. Maybe he just matured? Hope so. Hopefully, he gets better on defense ( I am confident he will work at it ), and he continues at the plate like he did last season--especially early on. He should be the starter coming out of ST, even if Rolen is there. That said, I won't be upset to having a Rolen on the bench. If he falters physically, one of the new guys, neither of which I know anything about other than what I have read on here, will fill that role, I am sure. If you are going for the marbles, a $2 million AAA insurance policy is not that much. Hopefully, Frazier makes all this small talk, takes the position, and keeps it? Finally, I love defense and pitching, but, our offense was so anemic against good pitchers the last couple years, we absolutely have to have a little more offense, even if at the expense of a little less coverage in CF--but, not necessarily much worse overall defense, and a little less defense at 3B, with a little more offense at both positions. I am elated by what has transpired. BJ, congrats on your newest coach. I am surprised your last one did not do better--really am.
.genewv |
12/12/2012 11:31:37 PM #
You know what else I like about Choo? It seems like guys who hit really well in American League come to the National League and really tear it up. Being a contract year and changing to the National League, He just may have his best year ever.
12/12/2012 11:58:39 PM #
Yep. Here is hoping!
12/13/2012 8:49:21 AM #
Deals coming for Bailey then Latos very soon I'm guessing. Next off-season may be very slow for the Reds.
12/13/2012 8:50:08 AM #
Not that I think that's a bad thing.
12/13/2012 9:06:04 AM #
I was thinking the same thing. The biggest conversation will be the great debate on whether Billy Hamilton is the real deal or not. I suspect we'll see him at some point in the regular season on the roster. It may not be til September, but If he continues the improvement he showed last year, we'll be seeing him.
12/13/2012 9:23:36 AM #
I dislike defensive metrics. I like that we try to measure defense what I hate is that we just don't know how to accurately do so. As a result the "eye-test" always seems to work better for me. Take Jay Bruce for instance. Great UZR in 2010, 19.7 according to FanGraphs but in 2011 it was -0.8 and in 2012 it was -5.5. Are you kidding me? Does anyone believe for a moment that Bruce went from Gold Glove RF to awful in 2 yrs time? So what accounts for the difference in the UZR ratings? I have no idea. Bruce has a lot fewer put-outs in the past two years but is that because fewer fly-balls are being hit to RF? Perhaps he defers to BP and Stubbs more on fly-balls and pop-ups on the edge of his "zone". Fielding those balls would likely drive up his UZR since they'd likely be considered balls out of your zone. Any way, I don't put much merit in the defensive metrics as a result. I don't see Choo being as bad as he was rated last year, in the recent past he had good UZR ratings and they dropped off last year just as Bruce's did from 2010 to 2011. I do realize the Reds CF defense will decline this year but I don't think it will be Adam Dunn in LF like. I think it will be more Drew Stubbs in 2010 like. When he would make a good play on one ball then misread the next one and let it fall in for a hit. The difference will be that Choo will more likely come up to bat the next inning and get on base where Stubbs would add insult to injury by taking a called third strike with a guy on base and Votto in the hole.
12/13/2012 9:28:34 AM #
I haven't seen the money numbers yet but apparently the Reds signed Hannahan to a 2 yr contract with an option for year 3.
12/13/2012 9:35:11 AM #
RF...we share the dislike of defensive metrics. They are confusing and hard to understand the measurements. I'm an eyeball guy anyway who has come around to some of the offensive metrics but I can't be sold on the D versions. We all watch every game and yes its anecdotal but you get a sense of who is good bad or average. So it measures put outs...what about assists? No one runs on the guy anymore. He makes the occasional bone head play but he is for the most part reliable. I think Choo will be reliable in the same way. He may struggle to get to balls Stubbs would glide to. Balls will drop in or get into the gaps and we will all say Stubbs would have been there. I just hope theres enough offense to make up for those hits. History says there will be now he has to do it on the field. BTW in 2010 Stubbs looked bad on paper in the OF and at times he looke bad to the eye as well but in 2010 he hit for power and a better obp so his weaknesses could be justified. Had he just stayed that player things wouldn't be all that bad.
12/13/2012 9:54:03 AM #
I agree, Stubbs was far less of a liability that first year with the potential to get better. His defense did get much better. Unfortunately the offense got worse. I think a lot of Stubbs issues are between his ears and some guys can't overcome that. I started to believe Stubbs is one such guy. Some of the smartest guys out there have the biggest issue trying not to overthink things while in the box, soon their confidence is gone as well. Not saying this is what happened to Stubbs but I believe I saw evidence of it at times. I hope he gets it turned around in Cleveland and has a great career.
12/13/2012 9:57:44 AM #
I could actually see the change of scenery being good for him. Francona isn't going to try to force him into a spot he doesn't fit either. He could go up there, be told his hitting 8th or 9th in the lineup get comfy there and start hitting again. I don't think he'll ever be great, but I think he could have his best seasons in front of him, and I hope he does. It still wouldn't make the deal bad for the Reds, he was going to continue to get worse here until he just wasn't around anymore.
12/13/2012 9:55:36 AM #
I really wish there was someway to measure defense reliably. I believe defense is vital and should be considered when determining the value of a player - I just have yet to see a system that I feel does so accurately.
12/13/2012 10:22:42 AM #
I just don't see how they could ever come up with a way to reliably quantify defense. It just seems like there are so many variables that go into defense that I don't know how they could statistically put anything reliable out there on it. Some guys have great range but horrible arms, then there's guys who have great range and make incredible catches but don't make easy ones, some guys make every catch but don't have the great range. Some guys can get great reads on the ball and while they don't have a lot of speed to cover a lot of ground they make catches other guys who are "better" may not. Ludwick last year was a prime example. He's not particularly fast, I guess he has a decent arm but nothing that's going to set the world on fire, and he probably doesn't cover as much ground as other guys, but he was a pretty nice LF for the Reds last year. How can they come up with a statistical analysis for a guy like him who isn't particularly athletic but does a nice job out there? Compared to someone who is a plus WAR defender out there. I can't believe they have him as a negative 1 WAR on baseball reference. I didn't see his D as a negative at all.
12/13/2012 10:03:12 AM #
This nearly made me spit out my coffee. I had forgotten how horrible Valdez/Cairo were last year. Chris Garber@cgarber8 Jack Hannahan's feeble 2012 line (.244/.312/.341) represents a 200 point OPS improvement over the #Reds incumbent utility IFs.
12/13/2012 10:08:52 AM #
Oh and he's a left-handed option off the bench also. I'd take Rolen and Hannahan off the bench all day long.
12/13/2012 10:10:07 AM #
The only issue would be who backs up Cozart at SS if needed? I guess you slide Frazier to SS and plug one of these guys into third.
12/13/2012 10:19:58 AM #
Hannahan played seven games at SS last year.
12/13/2012 10:23:59 AM #
didn't the dude they got from Cleveland play short stop too? He'll likely be in AAA but if there were any extended period of time that Cozart missed, he could fill in.
12/13/2012 11:15:46 AM #
It will be interesting to see how the roster shakes out if Rolen really does return
12/13/2012 1:22:17 PM #
Yep, Jason Donald. He's played as much SS in the past three years as any other position I believe. He's also played some CF here and there. I think he's a quality sub to have on the bench but if Rolen comes back I don't think Donald starts the year in Cincy. He seems like the odd-man out to me.
12/13/2012 1:26:52 PM #
That's the way I see it too, RF.
12/13/2012 1:24:19 PM #
Just noticed the URL for this thread: redsoctober.com/post/2012/12/12/12-12-2012.aspx That is a load of twelves there.
12/13/2012 1:53:22 PM #
One thing on defensive stats: they're imperfect for the same reason the 'eye test' is perfect. Last year I distinctly remember Chris Heisey turning what could have/should have been an out into a double that led to a multi-run inning in a game the Reds ultimately lost. We, here, were split. A few of us said, 'oh yeah - he should have caught that.' A few of us said, 'not at all! That was a tough play that was just a hit.' And there's no real way of knowing who was right, especially when (if memory serves), Stubbs missed a ball in nearly the same spot like the next week (the lesson, as always: Drew Stubbs is a terrible baseball player). Anyway, the defensive stats work the same way. Guys get credit for catching balls that are theoretically 'catchable.' Guys lost for not catching those same balls. But who the hell knows what's 'catchable' or not? Point is, we can expect Choo to make routine catches. And we can expect Choo to not make some catches Stubbs or Heisey could potentially make. But given both the offensive advantage and the fact that Heisey will probably be in center for the last 2-3 innings of most games, I just can't imagine this making a huge difference - ESPECIALLY given the fact that without a leadoff guy who could get on more than 25% of the time last year, we tied for the league's best record and won the division by 9 games. It'll be ok. Really.
12/13/2012 2:02:20 PM #
Well said, and I can't state enough to people who are worried about the defense, Stubbs, while a good CF was not Willie Mays out there. From some of the comments I've read about the trade on FB, you would think Stubbs was the greatest CF to ever play the game. In reality he was probably in the lower top 3rd or top 2nd third of the MLB.
12/13/2012 2:10:03 PM #
Dusty talked about Stubbs like he was Mays. So did the Reds announcers. That's where a lot of this stuff is coming from.
12/13/2012 2:00:06 PM #
I'm guessing Heisey and Choo are about equal in terms of defense in CF. And I doubt that we'll pull our leadoff hitter out of the game very often.
12/13/2012 2:03:19 PM #
1.) Heisey is a lot better in center than you're giving him credit for. 2.) Last year, Heisey regularly took over for Ludwick in left. I'd imagine, this year, you'll see Heisey regularly take over for Choo in center, with Choo shifting over to left. Who knows? But given what Dusty did last year, that would make the most sense.
12/13/2012 2:12:21 PM #
Oh, I think Heisey's good. I just think Choo will be, too. And again, I don't think you take out your leadoff hitter very often.
12/13/2012 2:14:23 PM #
If Choo shifts to left, he'll never be taken out - it would be Ludwick taken out, just like he was last year. That's what I've heard people speculate would happen. Again, though, who knows, especially with Dusty.
12/13/2012 2:05:42 PM #
Wow, Josh Hamilton to the Angels? Talk about a potent lineup.
12/13/2012 2:08:12 PM #
How's this for Opening Day? Cueto, Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Choo VS Weaver, Pujols, Trout, Trumbo and Hamilton. That's a freaking heavyweight fight.
12/13/2012 2:10:29 PM #
I may just buy a 20 game pack so I can get opening day tickets. That could be your world series next year.
12/13/2012 2:13:18 PM #
Callin' it right now: Next year's WS.
12/13/2012 2:09:04 PM #
Trivia: One of my colleagues grew up in the same South Korean city as Shin-Soo Choo. He says that Choo's father was a big star and fan favorite in the pro baseball league over there.
12/13/2012 2:16:56 PM #
So, here's something: I've read some Indian fans talk about how Choo has been disinterested/distracted/bored in the outfield the last couple years, leading to bad routes, etc. I've also heard that he was somewhat of a malcontent in Cleveland. What if THAT'S part of why he was such a good fielder a couple years ago and a not so good one last year? And if so, why should we not expect him - in a contract year, on a World Series contender, playing for the most beloved manager in baseball - to have those issues go away? That might be what Jocketty is banking on. I had said before that Dusty gives us a big advantage in that guys who weren't so good in other clubhouses (like Latos, for example) aren't a big deal in Cincy with Dusty being so great. If some of that is a factor in Choo, then we may have a steal there.
12/13/2012 2:26:50 PM #
It's hard to stay motivated when you are the lone bright spot in a team going nowhere. I think the change of scenery, playing for a contender, Dusty, going to the National League, and a contract year are all indications that this guy is going to have a banner season.
12/13/2012 2:20:14 PM #
This seems like a good time to mention once again the Reds April schedule: 3 against Anaheim 3 against Washington 3 at St. Louis 3 at Pittsburgh 3 against Philly 3 against Miami 3 against Chicago 3 at Washington 3 at St. Louis Holy freaking hell that's a brutal schedule. If we're sitting at 14-13 after that bloodbath, we're in great shape to win the division. If we're something like 11-16 or 12-15, okay - there will be work to do, but ok. If we're something like 16-11 or 17-10, this 'race' will be over by September 1. Regardless, that schedule is a huge factor in how the season will get off and running.
12/13/2012 2:24:55 PM #
Wow. A hope slow starters like Ludwick and Latos come ready to go.
12/13/2012 2:40:36 PM #
I guess if you have to play them anyway, get it all out early lol.
12/13/2012 2:53:29 PM #
It's kind of what happened last year. The Reds had a difficult April schedule. They didn't look great but won their fair share of games. Once June, July, and August rolled around, the Reds showed that they were as good as anyone in baseball because they won the games they were supposed to win and competed well in the big games.
12/13/2012 2:54:28 PM #
Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick Josh Hamilton deal with #angels for $125M over 5 years, source confirms
12/13/2012 2:55:00 PM #
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi Mark the calendar: Josh Hamilton will make his #Angels debut in Cincinnati ... where he played for #Reds as a rookie.
12/13/2012 2:57:54 PM #
The thing that makes an outfielder great is positioning and learning to read both the pitch location and ball off the bat instantly. This skill is what makes Ryan Ludwick a good LF despite his lack of speed. The truly great outfielders have the ability to read the ball and position themselves to it but also run it down and make the great play. See Willie Mays. While Stubbs has gotten better at the first part, he still relies mostly on his speed out there. From the limited amount of time that I've seen Choo, I've seen an instinctual baseball player both in the field and offensively. Stubbs just flat out does not have the instinct. Ludwick and Heisey both do, which is why they are good enough outfielders. If Choo has the instinct like I think he does, he'll be better than even Heisey because I think he has a few more physical tools than Heisey.
12/13/2012 3:56:44 PM #
This tweet is just for Soccer! Old Hoss Radbourn @OldHossRadbourn #55: "Yogi" Berra. Italian catcher, the worst of two worlds. Yet it is fun to throw things at Italians. Cursed us all with his son, Dale.
12/13/2012 4:23:49 PM #
One thing to remember about OF defense--CF is BY FAR the easiest to play well. I have played them all, and can say beyond a doubt, your read off the bat is the best view in the house, unlike RF and LF, where you sometimes have to guess if the ball was outside, inside, a breaking ball, fastball, what part of the bat connected, was the hitter out front of it, behind it, the spin. etc., etc., etc. Obviously, if you have instinct and speed, well, you become a Torie Hunter, Junior Griffy--but, there are not many of those around. Others who have overcome without blinding speed, but great instincts, are Andy Van Slyke, Jim Edmunds, etc. Not saying Choo is in that class, just saying my bet is he will be very efficient there. Also, you do not have to worry about running into the walls in foul territory, a big plus. I guess what I am saying is, CF is a position where instinct can carry you a long way defensively. Some guys that struggle a little in right or left do not in center.
12/13/2012 4:37:56 PM #
Ha, Gene and I have opposite views of CF. Shows you how much more LF I played in my days than CF.
12/13/2012 4:33:01 PM #
BJ - I think you have made a very good point in what is likely the main difference between Stubbs and someone like Choo. I often said that Stubbs would get late reads on balls and make up for it with his speed. A lot of gap shots got over his head as a result. A slightly slower player who gets a quicker read (like Jay Bruce) makes more plays than Stubbs in my opinion. But I will say this, I've played a LOT of LF and CF in my days and CF is a much tougher read off the bat, especially at balls hit right at you. I think a lot of decent fielders get caught dead in their tracks trying to figure out if a ball is hit over their head or dropping in front of them. That was definitely Drew Stubbs on many occasions.
12/13/2012 4:35:04 PM #
I should also say that I lean with Ash - the difference in the CF defense will likely have minimal impact on the season. Maybe a game or two here or there but overall I don't believe it impacts the Reds all that much. The impact of having an actual good leadoff hitter will be much greater.
12/13/2012 4:48:06 PM #
I'm going to side with Gene on reading the ball off the bat. In LF or RF the ball can seem to come out of the hitter's shoulders or torso. In CF, it almost always comes out of the catcher's chest protector or facemask making it easier for me to get a bead on it. I think the same applies to middle infield over the corner spots. I will concede that players seem to get get fooled more on balls hit right at them in CF than anywhere else, though. Happens to all outfielders but more in Center for some reason, it seems.
12/13/2012 5:48:28 PM #
So, to review, it seems like the consensus is that center field is the more instinctive position, where being good in the corners is more a product of work and repetition? Is that what you guys are saying?
12/13/2012 6:14:58 PM #
Wow - Cubs may be signing Anibal Sanchez. Am I crazy or is Smarjsjida, Sanchez, Baker, Garza and Feldman not terrible? I mean, this is still the Cubs we're talking about, but they could be much closer to respectable than last year. They've almost definitely added 9 wins, and that would get them to 70, which, by the way, is almost what KC had last year (which just shows how asinine their definition of 'ready to contend' really is.
12/13/2012 6:40:56 PM #
A little hard to follow your phrasing there, Ash. Are you saying the Cubs might be improving? If so, then I agree.
12/13/2012 7:30:34 PM #
Ha. Yeah, but they're still the Cubs. I'm hesitant to be very optimistic about it.
12/13/2012 7:31:42 PM #
(hence my confusing phrasing)
12/13/2012 8:38:52 PM #
So what's next for the reds? A loogy, some minor league deals for an infielder or two and a catcher on a minor league deal too.
12/13/2012 10:27:28 PM #
RF, I think CF is the most important of the OF spots, as you can cut off hits in both the left and right allies, and,therefore, you tend to take away more hits etc., if you are good, of course. That said, I still contend, with no hesitation, it is the easiest part of the OF to get a true read of the ball off the bat, thus giving reads, instincts, a great deal of advantage. Of course, if you have those things and blinding speed, you are special. As you said, all OF normally have more trouble with balls hit over their head, or, right at them. CF becomes a little more difficult on that particular play because if the ball is hit right at you, it tends to do some silly things, like knuckle, take off in flight with straight ahead spin, not cutting left or right, where as in left and right, if the ball is hit straight at you, more often than not, it will hook, or slice before it actually gets to you, giving you a better chance to adjust, make the play, on that particular type hit ball. Anyway, that it is the way I have always seen them. Maybe all the coal dust in the air here in WV blurred my vision a little?
12/14/2012 8:20:14 AM #
I think we actually have some similar thoughts in regard to the outfield play really when I re-read it all. Basically a ball hit right at you is harder to judge initially in most cases. When playing LF, RF you don't get many of these types of hits because as you say they have a tendency to slice some or hook and you can usually pick that up pretty early but with that being said you do have the best view and usually get quicker reads in CF so I'll give you that. When I think about it more I guess there are certain hits to each field that are just going to be tougher than most others to judge or play. For me it was that ball hit right at me in CF that I felt was the toughest- especially at night on poorly lit fields. Those balls hit to deep, dead CF - having to put your back to the infield and run it down, trying to make an over the shoulder catch, now that's a true art few really get down well. I think of a young JR making those plays. Drew Stubbs didn't make many of those plays. He often froze on balls hit right at him and a lot of them dropped in front of him or got over his head. Not always but more times than not.
12/14/2012 8:35:31 AM #
I guess I should also have stated that I believe Choo will make most of the routine plays in CF, will likely get better reads overall than Stubbs did but will be slower which should make him about even with Stubbs on many flyballs. As I've stated previously, I do expect there to be a slight drop-off in the overall CF defense. I don't think it will be as great as some are making it out to be. Heard a LOT of talk about Cabrera moving to third base when Fielder was signed in Detroit last year. Overall he didn't do too badly there last year. I think most will say the same for Choo once the season gets underway.
12/14/2012 8:50:26 AM #
Thinking about Champs question of what's next, I think he's right on about AAA depth at SS and BP. My Christmas wish for the Reds is for one more above average arm in the big league pen. Massett is a huge question mark and best case won't be ready on opening day. Chapman's out and I'm starting to think Brox, Marshall, LeCure, Arredondo, Simon,Ondrusek looks good but not great and not real deep after that. It's pretty nice when the 6th or 7th arm in the pen is your concern and it ain't even Christmas yet.
12/14/2012 8:58:19 AM #
Don't forget Hoover! I actually think our bullpen looks pretty good. Not a fan of Arredondo, but otherwise I like this bunch. Even Simon.
12/14/2012 10:56:23 AM #
One more lefty in the BP would be nice.
12/14/2012 8:54:54 AM #
RF, Agree on all points. Stubbs certainly got to some balls a guy like Choo will never smell, especially in the gaps. Some things are just about talent, gifts, and are simply God-given, speed one of them. Heck, Adam Dunn used to get to some "gappers" in left center that someone that was not 6'6", had a a really long stride ( once he got wound up ), that Ludwick will never get to, but, Ludwick is by far the superior fielder. I think Stubbs speed was wonderful to watch, especially in the gaps, but, he was real weak on balls hit right at him ( the toughest to track, as you rightly said ), and, IMO, was not tough, in that he seldom laid out for balls, challenged walls, sometimes did not get to the wall quickly enough, depending mostly on his speed, etc., which were considerable, no doubt. All that said, he was still one fine CF--better than fine. Like most, I do not feel, on this team, that his lack of offensive skills, as in multiple K's, lack of contact, poor bunting skills, etc., were "made up" by his defensive skills. On a outstanding offensive team, that could be a totally different deal. Stubbs just had a lot more God-given physical talent than he had baseball instincts, innate. Many of his skills were muted by lack of baseball instincts--like base stealing--makes little difference if you can't get on base consistently. Choo's offense, instincts, both at the plate, in the field, will be a big net plus for this team. I do hope the change helps him, I really do.
12/14/2012 9:22:35 AM #
sums up how I feel in a lot of ways.
12/14/2012 9:32:20 AM #
Gene - you just nailed my opinion of Stubbs' game and overall value.
12/14/2012 9:00:06 AM #
Uh, innate ability to play the game! Messed up first post of the day--what's new!
12/14/2012 9:33:46 AM #
Dawg, I would like to have another left-hander in the bullpen personally. I fear Masset is going to struggle this year. A quality left-hander to replace Arrednondo or Masset if he's struggling.
12/14/2012 10:51:45 AM #
Looks like the Cubs didn't land Sanchez after all: sports.yahoo.com/.../...-80-million-152445397.html
12/14/2012 10:54:41 AM #
Brandon Phillips @DatDudeBP #WellAlright... Guess it's about that time to head to #TomsRiver, NJ to see something magical!!! Really can't wait... #GoodnightMyFriends Wonder if this is for Todd Frazier's wedding?
12/14/2012 10:58:53 AM #
It is. He is getting married today.
12/14/2012 12:34:11 PM #
Jacquelyn Frazier @JFraz14 Today is a magical day where I marry my Prince Charming - and have my dreams come true and my happily ever after- I love you Todd Brian💒👰💏💍💗 Retweeted by Brandon Phillips
12/14/2012 11:18:06 PM #
Oh wow, young people are so sweet when they are in love. I can't even bring myself to say anything cynical.
12/14/2012 10:56:15 AM #
Eye on Baseball @EyeOnBaseball Cubs out on Anibal Sanchez, Tigers now frontrunners http://cbsprt.co/XlU0NQ via @cbssports Ash can relax--these are still the Cubbies we know and love
12/14/2012 10:58:30 AM #
Yep word is the deal with the Tigers has been finalized just waiting approval.
12/14/2012 12:34:56 PM #
From Fay's blog: –Hannahan on Shin-Soo Choo: “I’m a big fan of Choo. I love the way he plays the game. He shows up every day — always the first one at the park, the last one to leave. He’s as tough as they come. When you put him between the lines, he gives it 100 percent. I think he’s going to do big things here.” –Jocketty on Choo playing center field: “He’s a great athlete. He goes well side to side. I talked to him about it yesterday. He willing to put the effort in and work with Billy Hatcher and Eric Davis in spring training.”
12/14/2012 2:14:49 PM #
This is the kind of stuff I want to hear. Hard work is contagious, just as Bronson Arroyo, Joey Votto and Scott Rolen.
12/14/2012 1:34:11 PM #
See- this is my complaint about WAR. No way on God's green earth is Josh Hamilton the 38th best player in baseball last year. He's just not. And you're going to try and tell me you could plug in some random Joe from AAA and he would give you as many wins as Hamilton -4.1? No Way. I ain't buying that for a knickle. No major league GM is buying it either. And therein lies the problem. That is such a flawed system of evaluation that it is just laughable.
12/14/2012 2:01:07 PM #
What I don't get about WAR is you look at a year like 2010. Joey Votto led the league in OBP, OPS, and Slugging, while hitting .324 and his WAR on baseball reference was 6.7 had a 7.3 despite all those numbers being lower than Votto's in 2010. I know it's barely more than 1/2 a game difference, but still. Unless defense factored in but again we know defensive metrics basically suck and Joey was gold glove caliber even in 2010, so I don't buy into the WAR as a be all end all. I do think it's interesting to take into consideration how great a person's season may have been in historic perspective, but one could just the same look at the stats like OBP and OPS things like that to compare how great someone's season was compared to another person in history.
12/14/2012 3:38:36 PM #
Saw this twitter post and couldn't help but laugh: Chris Garber @cgarber8 Dusty has announced that Jason Donald will play CF and lead off.
12/14/2012 3:49:15 PM #
Okay, I laughed.
12/14/2012 3:46:06 PM #
As posted by John Fay: "Today the Reds named Ronnie Ortegon Major League assistant hitting coach, Ryan Jackson minor league hitting coordinator, Jim Riggleman manager at Louisville, Delino DeShields manager at Pensacola, Ken Griffey Sr. manager at Bakersfield, Jose Nieves manager at Dayton, Pat Kelly manager at Billings and Eli Marrero manager at AZL Reds;"
12/14/2012 3:48:06 PM #
Found this quote from Walt online: "I think we're done for the most part," general manager Jocketty said. "We're still looking at some things to improve the roster -- if I could find a left-handed reliever or something like that. I think right now we've got a very solid club. We've got a good bench, starting pitching and a bullpen. Our everyday lineup is very good. But we never resist an opportunity to improve the club." full article: www.wdbj7.com/.../...o086-20121213,0,7734466.story
12/14/2012 3:50:06 PM #
Another good quote from the above referenced article: --3B Scott Rolen is still deciding whether to retire. If he chooses to play, the Reds will try to open a spot for him. "I think you have to at least consider it," GM Walt Jocketty said. "At the end of the season, I told him if he did come back, it would be in a different role, but he's been so important to our success the last couple of years. He's been an instrumental part of our club. If he wants to play, we have to see if we can work something out to his satisfaction as well as ours."
12/14/2012 3:51:13 PM #
And another good one... LF Ryan Ludwick left money on the table when re-upping with the Reds for two-years and $15 million. "Money gets brought into the game of baseball a lot," Ludwick said. "But happiness means a lot to me. I'm extremely, extremely happy here." Heck go read the darn article already. www.wdbj7.com/.../...o086-20121213,0,7734466.story
12/14/2012 5:08:26 PM #
RF, WJ's comments on Rolen is the exact reason I think he is as good a GM as there is out there. He loves, respects Rolen, all he has done for the organization--that said, he is letting him know he will not be the starter at 3B, will occupy a bench role. He shows his heart, compassion, thanks, and then, he puts the team first--not Rolen. If Rolen wants to play every day, WJ will let him go where ever, and support him by making things as smooth as possible, not stand in the way. This is how you coach, manage, and run a organization, IMO. There is always room for compassion, thanks, but not in front of the team interest.
12/14/2012 5:09:59 PM #
Sounds as if Choo is exactly the kind of player we thought he was--play ball!
12/14/2012 6:39:24 PM #
In light of all the lunacy that is the world we live in, I just needed an escape. Like so many times in my past, I turned to baseball, literllay; episode 7 of Ken Burns Baseball. I know it sounds corny but I was really depressed. I got about halfway through and Abbot and Costello start the old "Who's on First" bit. Man did I need that laugh. I strongly reccommend it for anyone has the blues. Simply the best. And now, episode 8.
12/14/2012 7:19:29 PM #
Dawg, We all need a laugh on occasion. Matter of fact, I laugh a lot--really do. Good for the soul. I am not much into much of today's comedy, so, if I need a "lifter-upper" I go to something old as well. Slapstick sometimes is exactly what the doctor ordered.
12/15/2012 1:16:30 PM #
Jessica Quiroli @heelsonthefield 60 days. Pitchers and catchers. #SpringTraining #Baseball sixty long, long, long days
12/15/2012 5:25:21 PM #
Fay's place has some nice pictures from The Toddfather's wedding. Man his wife is pretty darned good looking.
12/16/2012 2:18:52 PM #
ctrent @ctrent This is why I wanted to name my daughter Knowshonda. www.nfl.com/.../Moreno-reaching-new-heights … The fact I wanted to stay married is why I didn't remember when he promised to name his firstborn Knowshonda?
12/16/2012 2:27:53 PM #
I do!
12/16/2012 3:02:18 PM #
The world of Reds' Baseball dearly misses CTrent. It was much nicer to have as a resident than it is as a periodic guest.
12/16/2012 3:03:46 PM #
...to have him.... I need an editor
...Dawginnaples |
12/16/2012 8:24:08 PM #
Dawg, I'll edit your post, if you like?
12/17/2012 8:18:21 AM #
HA HA HA!!! Or should I say HO HO HO?!?
12/17/2012 8:50:47 AM #
Fun stuff: mlb.mlb.com/.../article.jsp
12/17/2012 1:38:46 PM #
That is a great article. Thanks, Doc.
12/17/2012 1:59:01 PM #
I just saw on Dallas Latos' Twitter that when Mat was traded last year, he found out by waking and seeing it on ESPN. THAT'S CRAZY! No one from their organization called him to give him a heads up. She said looking back it was a blessing because the Reds have treated them both so great. No about 10-15 years ago, would you ever believe that the Reds would be a model organization? This offseason, to me has been awesome. I've heard several stories about how players enjoy being here and how good the organization is, AND the Reds are being recognized by "experts" as one of the premier teams heading into 2013. What universe are we in? Were the Mayans right? Is this a cruel joke the universe is playing on us and we'll all be vaporized before we truly get to enjoy the greatness this team will have?
12/17/2012 2:08:54 PM #
Couldn't agree more, Talbert, that this is a wonderful turn of events for the Reds organization. When guys like Ludwick take less money to stay here, and guys like Bruce want to extend their extensions because they want to spend their careers here, it says volumes about how this organization is run. We now have Votto and BP locked down for life, and even pitchers seem willing to sign mulit-year deals, despite playing half their games in GABP. I'm glad Latos feels welcome here, and I hope he signs an extension, too. These are great days to be a Reds fan.
12/17/2012 2:28:23 PM #
Power rankings have Reds #2: espn.go.com/.../power-rankings-nationals-reds-1-2 I think these two teams will duke it out for the NL title the next several years.
12/17/2012 4:03:50 PM #
Right now it does seem the Nats and Reds are in good position to win for a long time. I think the Dodgers should probably be in that conversation too. They kind of tossed all those guys together last year, now they have a spring training to play together and become a team, could be interesting, plus the Giants haven't really become any worse, they've won 2 WS in 3 years. So I think there are 3 or 4 teams right now that can win a lot of ball games. I love how nowadays the writers and experts are so certain that the AL is so dominant, but then you think back over the last few All star games, and several World Series in a row now and who has won? I mean the teams with the 2 best records in the MLB last year lost in the first round of the playoffs to lower seeded National League teams. I think the National League is going to be a lot of fun the next few years.
12/17/2012 4:54:25 PM #
Padded caps for pitchers? hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/.../
12/17/2012 5:45:15 PM #
I would be in favor of that!
12/17/2012 7:47:41 PM #
Has not helped the catchers much--ask Soccer!
12/18/2012 9:28:47 AM #
Have the Brewers made any moves this off-season? Has their window closed on them or can they still compete for the 2nd best record in the division and a potential wildcard?
12/19/2012 7:17:33 AM #
Brewers have strengthened their bullpen, which really is what kept them out of the wild card last year. Their starting pitching is likely not strong enough to get them enough wins to stick around all season, but you never know
timmytwoshoezzz |
12/18/2012 11:54:18 AM #
Good article from Poz about what to expect from the Hamilton/Pujols combo: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40716262
Amy |
12/20/2012 11:18:00 AM #
Good reminder about the inevitable decline with age, although it does make me worry about the Votto contract! Fortunately Joey is a good enough hitter that I think he'll continue to provide at least some value in his later years. Of course, with the inflation of baseball salaries, the amount he's owed might not be quite as out of whack at the end of the contract.
12/19/2012 2:13:22 PM #
The Cold-Stove rumors don't really appeal to me much more this off-season it seems. Soccer - so how is the Cincy/Xavier game going to go this time around?
12/19/2012 3:31:09 PM #
Mark Sheldon @m_sheldon Do #reds have a need for a lefty reliever? Maybe not ... http://bit.ly/UETWbC I would say that a LOOGY is not a priority at this point with the performance of RH relievers vs. lefties last year
12/19/2012 3:44:12 PM #
I've been saying this for years--but you know how Dusty loves his matchups. It's funny how when a closer comes in, everyone stops talking/caring about righties and lefties and matchups. The closer just faces whoever is up in the ninth. But before the ninth, all managers seem to care about is the lefty/righty thing. Seems stupid.
12/19/2012 4:09:03 PM #
I listened to the Hot Stove show last night, and Sam LeCure was the guest. He was asked that question and said he didn't think they needed another lefty. Felt like the Reds RH RPs matched up well against LH hitters.
12/19/2012 4:12:54 PM #
Hmm, guess I should click the link first. Mark Sheldon was listening, too.
12/19/2012 6:42:12 PM #
Off topic: Free fishing tips for anyone planning to come to south Florida to fish this winter: The bass seem to like a purple worm while the gators are crushing Rebel pop-Rs
12/19/2012 6:51:26 PM #
May 11 vs the Brew Crew will be Chapman bobblehead night. Wonder if he'll start?
12/19/2012 7:45:00 PM #
While I don't necessarily think this bullpen per se needs another LH reliever, as Ondrusek, Arredondo, and Lecure (not sure my memory serves me correctly on him), get lefties out at a good clip--when they are right. Being right applies mostly to Ondrusek ( who I have picked as my comeback player of the year this year, by the way ), and Arredondo, as both have out pitches that sink away from lefties. That said, in general, most middle relievers do not have the stuff of a closer, so normally, IMO, a mediocre LH middle reliever has a much greater chance of getting a LH hitter out, than a mediocre RH middle reliever. LH hitters, for whatever reason, simply do not hit lefties as well as "righties," especially those with not great, great stuff--which is the case with most middle relievers. The reasons have been debated forever, but, I personally believe it is because growing up playing baseball, LH hitters face a whole lot more RH pitchers than LH pitchers, so, they simply do not know how to adjust as well as a RH hitter against a RH pitcher, who sees plenty of pitchers from their hitting side over their developing years. Closers usually have great stuff, so, the lefty righty match-ups do not matter nearly as much. Guys with great stuff can get anyone out. JMO
12/20/2012 11:20:06 AM #
I like Poz's recommendation on the Hall of Fame: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40752188 I have to admit I was slightly let down by the plaque room when I visited the HOF seven or eight years ago.
12/20/2012 4:00:23 PM #
Great interview with Hanigan. www.fangraphs.com/.../
12/20/2012 4:23:34 PM #
Wow, fantastic interview. The guy knows his craft. Lots of good insight, although this was my favorite part: DL: Can you talk a little more about Broxton’s cutter? RH: We worked on it. I hadn’t caught him much, so I said, “Try some stuff, do a few different things.” He pulled out the cutter and I was like, “Dude, you have to use that.” The next outing he used it once or twice, and then a few more times the next, and after awhile it was probably his second-best pitch.
12/20/2012 4:25:22 PM #
Yeah, I liked that part too. He seems to have a lot of respect for Broxton, which is good to hear.
12/20/2012 4:35:51 PM #
No doubt. It also makes me feel more confident about Broxton next year, and probably explains why he was more successful with the Reds.
12/20/2012 4:35:41 PM #
I particularly liked this comment from RH near the end of the article when asked if pitchers knew what to throw: "Pitchers think they know, but sometimes they have no frigging clue. It’s so funny listening to them talk about what they think hitters are doing. I’ll tell them, ‘You have no idea.”
12/20/2012 4:43:23 PM #
Catchers and their silly thoughts. It totally depends on the catcher. To me, it was easiest when there was a catcher who was actually on the same page with me. I had a catcher who I threw to for 5 years. He knew what I wanted to throw 3 pitches into the future. He honestly didn't even need to drop signs down for me. We had another guy, who was a bench player catch me because the other guy was gone or hurt or something and he constantly dropped down the wrong sign at the wrong time, if I tried to shake him off he kept dropping the same sign. After about 2 innings of that we had a pow wow in the dugout where I pretty well lit his ass up. Coach said what's going on? I explained it, and then the coach pretty well lit the catcher's ass up too. I was a different kind of pitcher though. I could tell you everything a hitter did in a game on ever AB, and what kind of pitches they were a sucker for and what to do to keep them off balance. I knew how to pitch. I pretty much just needed the catcher to sit back there, catch the ball and toss it back to me.
12/20/2012 5:13:24 PM #
Best part of the interview is right at the start: Ryan Hanigan: I have an understanding of sabermetrics and a lot of the terms people are using to categorize what matters, and is what is actually going on. There’s definitely something to it, so I’ve thought about it in terms of the type of player I’ve been, and what I’m trying to become. It factors in to the organization’s perception of you, as well as Major League Baseball’s. So wait - advanced stats DO have value? And it isn't just a laughable way of looking at things that real, live organizations ignore? Well I'll be damned.
12/20/2012 5:29:56 PM #
Perhaps his biggest value to the team can't be measured by advanced stats though. His best trait isn't hitting, throwing guys out, or blocking the plate, though he does all well. The most valuable part of Ryan Hanigan is the way he handles a pitching staff. Sure the pitchers can have lower ERA's and stuff for different catchers, but Hanigan, and the way he handles these pitchers leads to more wins than anything else he does, and I don't think WAR or any of the sabremetrics can measure that.
12/20/2012 5:33:00 PM #
Sure - I can agree with that (especially given advanced stats' poor track record at evaluating the nuances of catching). But it's pretty refreshing for even an old school guy like Hanigan to admit that there's value to advanced stats and that he (and the team) pays attention to them.
12/20/2012 6:48:39 PM #
I think there is value in some advanced stats, and there are some that I think are garbage and some in between. Just like any other stat in the game, none of full proof that's for sure.
12/20/2012 5:14:24 PM #
Also, in Reds catcher news, Corky Miller re-signed for next year. So we can all relax. (no, really - I love Corky Miller and was getting worried I hadn't heard about him yet this offseason).
12/20/2012 6:01:55 PM #
YAYAYAYAYYA!!
12/20/2012 6:56:28 PM #
That Hanigan interview was some of the best off-season reading yet. Great stuff. I'm ready for some baseball, now. Isn't there some Carribean league stuff or something else going on?
12/20/2012 7:04:55 PM #
Hanigan stuff was really good. Bottom line on pitchers, catchers, who calls the best game, etc.? Depends on who the catcher is, who the pitcher is. Lot of difference calling games for Arroyo and Latos. Case closed.
12/21/2012 8:56:41 AM #
Some updates from Fay: cincinnati.com/.../ Glad to hear the Garcia rumor wasn't true. Looks like it's going to be a Cold Stove League for the Reds for the next month or two--and that's okay by me. Although I miss talking about them.
12/21/2012 9:19:59 AM #
So, some computer projection said the Red's had the 5th best off season. The problem is, based on the roster (which is the same one that won 97 games)the projection said they would win 84 games before their moves, then they added 3 wins for a whopping total of 87 wins for 2013. Glad the play the games on the field and not the computer
12/21/2012 9:22:00 AM #
I'll buy the part about adding three wins. Hope to see us reach triple digits.
12/21/2012 9:34:17 AM #
Yeah, I just thought it was funny that the first projection based on the roster, saw the reds losing 13 games off of last year's total. I'll buy that maybe they overplayed a bit, but 13 games? C'mon.
12/21/2012 11:59:23 AM #
So, they could add 50 more games of Joey Votto's bat and 25 or so of Ludwick's bat and somehow be 10 games worse? That must be because the WLBs will be projected to win a gazillion more with their best starter gone.
12/21/2012 12:10:32 PM #
Oh, you hadn't heard? St. Louis is going to win 120 games next year, and they're not even going to use starting pitchers at all. They're just that amazing.
12/21/2012 12:23:50 PM #
Would guess that the projected win total is down because the REds will not get to play the Astros 19 times.
kohawk10s |
12/21/2012 12:41:06 PM #
That could be true, though that's also true for St. Louis and Milwaukee.
12/21/2012 12:59:01 PM #
I don't disagree that they could win fewer games next year, but 13 with the same roster as last year? Then 10 fewer with the addition of Choo? I know it's just off season fodder to give us something to talk about, but that's a huge drop off from last year.
12/21/2012 1:11:02 PM #
It's still likely higher than the same "experts" predicted the Reds would win last year.
12/21/2012 1:54:01 PM #
I'm going to miss the Astros
12/21/2012 1:59:39 PM #
We still get them for a few games
12/21/2012 2:19:11 PM #
MLB Trade Rumors @mlbtraderumors The Astros announced that they have signed free agent reliever Jose Veras to a one-year contract. They won't be so easy to beat now.
12/21/2012 1:59:07 PM #
More evidence that Bryan Price is really good at his job: espn.go.com/.../the-best-pitching-coach-in-the-majors
12/21/2012 2:18:03 PM #
pay the man. Don't let him leave no matter what. If he wants to manage then dusty needs to step aside.
12/21/2012 2:29:46 PM #
Price is one of those coaches I'd love to shadow for an entire season. Just to see how he does things, listen to whatever he has to say about his pitchers, what he's telling them to work on and so forth. I think anyone could learn a lot of stuff from a guy like Price. Hoping he's around for a long while.
12/21/2012 3:36:22 PM #
Fun Bryan Price story: When I went to see the Reds in July, I took a stadium tour. This was, mind you, a full six to seven hours before game time - the guys who take care of the field aren't even there yet. It's like 12:30 for a 7:05 game. In fact there were zero Reds players there (we know - we saw the player parking garage and there were no cars in it yet). Well, we get to the field and I see a guy on the field doing some sort of yoga thing - stretches, poses, etc. About, 20 minutes later or so that same guy is in the outfield, perfectly silent and still, meditating. It was Bryan Price. Here's why I love that. I don't know exactly what he was doing - it was clearly a religious/spiritual thing, though it could have simply been a relaxation exercise or whatever. I don't know. But what I do know is this: he was there before the players having a quiet, personal moment WHILE ON THE BASEBALL FIELD. To him, whether it was a religious or simply time by himself to relax, he chose to do it while at the field before anyone else arrived. This guy is committed to both the team and his craft in a way that you and I can't really even fathom. And that's why he's the best.
12/21/2012 3:53:38 PM #
That is a nice story. In my summer leagues I was always the first one to the field. I'd show up a good hour before anyone else. I liked having the quiet time in the dugout to myself to get ready. I'd just get there and kind of take it all in. My family went through a lot in those years and the only place I found solace was between the lines. I was the first there and last to leave.
12/21/2012 4:11:11 PM #
Very cool story, Ash. I'm with RF--don't let this guy go.
12/21/2012 4:50:08 PM #
This is great: www.cbssports.com/.../amazing-ra-dickeys-slo-mo-knuckleball
12/21/2012 6:02:06 PM #
Can you imagine trying to catch that for an entire game?
12/21/2012 6:33:06 PM #
The catcher looked battle-fatigued.
12/22/2012 11:26:17 AM #
Heh, good description
12/21/2012 11:19:59 PM #
Totally agree with everyone on Price. Cannot let him leave under any circumstances. The scariest part of the Reds rotation this year (for opposing teams that is) is Latos now that Price has had a full season and will have a full spring training to work with him. IMO, Latos has better stuff than Cueto, Bailey, and maybe even Chapman. With his fire and durability, I could easily see Latos putting up a monster season. He has been good so far in his career, but he has the potential to be great. There's no one better to tap that greatness potential than Price.
12/22/2012 12:01:12 PM #
I would think Cueto is probably is good as he's going to get. He figured out the mental part of the game, he's learned how to pitch and not throw. That doesn't mean I don't think he'll have better years than last season, just that he is probably at or around his ceiling. Bailey, grew a lot from 2011 to 2012 and if he stays healthy, I think he has a LOT of room. He hasn't hit his ceiling yet. He still has some room to grow mentally, and mechanically he's getting closer to being a great pitcher. Latos, hasn't scratched the surface yet in my opinion. He's accomplished what he's done by raw talent alone in my opinion. He's a 1A type starter but he's so immature as a pitcher and mentally. If he makes the strides that Cueto did 2 years ago and Bailey did between 2011 and 2012, he's going to be one of the 4 or 5 best pitchers in baseball. This staff has 3 guys capable of being aces, that's no exaggeration. Add Chapman to the mix, even though in 2013 he may have a rough time, this rotation in 2014 could be one of the best we've ever seen. I think this all speaks to what Ash was saying about Price doing the meditation and being Zen and all that. The proof is in the pudding, he gets these wild young guys to calm down and learn how to harness the emotions and become a pitcher. Barring injury, this Reds team is going to win a World Series.
12/22/2012 8:52:14 AM #
The Reds signed this guy to a minor league contract: www.baseball-reference.com/.../player.cgi Okay, he's never made it out of the minors--but at 7'1", I would think he could scare the hell out of some batters. Worth a flyer.
12/22/2012 11:32:43 AM #
I agree, he's definitely worth a chance. Besides, the Reds have been short a Netherlander since Gregorius was traded.
12/22/2012 12:10:53 PM #
Just ran across this. It's hard to believe how much Hanigan has progressed in a few years. www.fangraphs.com/.../
Soccerdad13 |
12/22/2012 10:40:03 PM #
Very, very sad news: www.firstcoastnews.com/.../Former-Big-Leaguer-from-Jax-Ryan-Freel-Dead-at-36
12/23/2012 10:32:16 AM #
Terrible news. My prayers are with his family.
12/22/2012 10:51:03 PM #
Prayers for him and his family. I have to wonder if his many concussions contributed to his mental state.
12/23/2012 10:31:53 AM #
His concussion history was the first thing that popped into my mind as well.
12/23/2012 8:10:12 AM #
Extremely sad. Our family loved Ryan Freel during his time as a Red. We will always have fond memories of his work ethic and tough play. He could have turned that into something special coaching. Our thoughts are with him and his family.
12/23/2012 10:40:25 AM #
Nice tribute to Freel by CTR and Marc Lancaster: www.cbssports.com/.../remembering-ryan-freel
12/23/2012 3:00:34 PM #
and another from Anthoney Castrovince cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/.../article.jsp
12/23/2012 6:36:16 PM #
The Freel news is horrifying. It's unbelievable sad that part of what made him such a fan favorite (his quirky personality, his penchant for valuing an out above his own brain's safety, his bi-polar extremes, both on and off the field) undoubtedly contributed to his tragedy. In hindsight, much of what made Freel 'Farney' can easily be construed as a cry for help that fell on deaf ears. And that sucks. Or maybe not. I don't know. All I know is that it sucks.
12/24/2012 3:28:10 PM #
As sad as the Freel tragedy is, I must admit, when I first read it, I was not surprised at all--just sad. Lots of folks going to have a tough Christmas this year--that, too, is not unusual, as all know. Prayers for his family, the folks in Conn., Soccer and his family, all others we don't know of. For you guys and gals, a Merry Christmas.
12/24/2012 3:36:28 PM #
Happy birthday to our fearless site host, RedFaced.
12/24/2012 4:02:50 PM #
Yes--happy birthday to the site's big cheese!
12/24/2012 10:35:23 PM #
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and thanks for giving a guy as lame as me a great place to talk about the greatest sport and team in the world (and thanks doubly for putting up with my constant nonsense)! You all truly are wonderful.
Ashlandateam |
12/24/2012 10:55:33 PM #
I second that. Merry Christmas everyone!
12/24/2012 10:41:11 PM #
Merry Christmas to All.
12/25/2012 12:39:55 AM #
Thanks for all the birthday wishes gang! I hope each of you have a great Christmas, I enjoy each of you very much and treasure the time we get to banter and talk Reds baseball.
12/25/2012 9:18:25 AM #
Let me wish you a happy birthday as well. I missed the event somewhere along the line. I always used to say that one could continue to look forward to birthdays until they reached Soc. Sec., be that 62, 65, 66, whatever your slot is. Now, not so sure I can say that, as Soc. Sec. is in a heap of trouble, but, at any rate, you still have plenty of good ones left to look forward to. Hope you enjoy them all. Me, I have passed my last good one, so just take it day by day.
12/25/2012 9:28:55 AM #
Merry Christmas to my good friends at Reds October. Here's hoping that next year at this time, our site's banner says "2013 World Series Champs." Best wishes to you and your families--may it be a wonderful day and holiday season.
12/25/2012 11:29:01 AM #
Merry Christmas to all on this site....you provide a lot of entertainment for an old fart who lives in a hole.....thank you one and all.
ohioredsfan1 |
12/25/2012 12:59:52 PM #
Merry Christmas to all of my friends here. Looking forward to lots of good baseball to discuss soon! Oh, and Santa brought me a Votto jersey--I'm ready for Goodyear!!
12/25/2012 1:01:52 PM #
Santa brought me a Votto jersey WooHoo!!
12/25/2012 7:36:16 PM #
Merry Christmas to all here. I'm good. My sister in law and niece are doing as well as they can. My crazy family keeps me laughing my overly large butt off
12/25/2012 8:36:46 PM #
Merry Christmas RO....hope you got everything you were looking for. No Reds gear here this year but I'm sure Ill pick some up along the way. I am so full.
12/25/2012 9:33:54 PM #
A belated Merry Christmas to everyone!
12/25/2012 10:02:37 PM #
Merry Christmas everyone!
12/26/2012 9:18:28 AM #
I got a pair of fleece Reds pajama bottoms, an NL Central Champs hat, and a Reds trailer hitch plug. So not too bad a Reds haul for me this year.
12/26/2012 9:27:40 AM #
Didn't get any Reds gear (I'm pretty well stocked), but I got SonOfDoc some Reds floor mats for his car--and a bobblehead of him wearing a Reds shirt.
12/26/2012 9:50:37 AM #
Payrolls by division as reported by mlbtraderumors.com, numbers in parenthesis are last years numbers. These number are subject to change of course. American League: $111.7MM per team ($104.7MM) AL East: $128.9MM per team ($119.6MM) AL Central: $96.3MM per team ($90.5MM) AL West: $109.6MM per team ($103.9MM) National League: $99.1MM per team ($95.8MM) NL East: $111.5MM per team ($105.9MM) NL Central: $89.4MM per team ($90.8MM) NL West: $98.3MM ($88.5MM) Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#wgfsZ03Yf5pBmKRE.99
12/26/2012 6:11:44 PM #
espn.go.com/.../strange-true-feats-2012-mlb-season If you have an hour to burn read this. Funny stuff on the donkey. Seriously, how long did this take to write??
12/27/2012 9:17:42 AM #
I wonder if Stark works on it all year long so it's not such an overwhelming project at the end of the year. Good stuff on Dunn. Despite the 222 strikeouts, he still ended the season with an .800 OPS.
12/27/2012 1:49:44 PM #
Hi. Nothing to report.
12/27/2012 2:41:53 PM #
Random: Don't teams usually hold a press conference when they make a big trade? And don't they usually have the new player sport the team colors and talk about the trade? Or is that just for free-agent signings? My point is, we haven't heard boo from or about Choo since we traded for him, right? I can't recall a single comment from him. Did I miss something?
12/27/2012 3:27:03 PM #
You're right, I don't think there's been an official announcement. Maybe they're waiting until after the holidays.
12/27/2012 5:53:44 PM #
Perhaps he spends his off season in Korea and did not want to come over for a one-year rent-a-player trade. Just a guess on my part.
12/28/2012 10:19:25 AM #
Jamie Ramsey @Jamieblog Good news for @fsohio_girls ...they can keep those Drew Stubbs jerseys.
12/28/2012 12:15:34 PM #
New thread is up for easier mobile access
12/28/2012 1:13:50 PM #
New caps for Spring training espn.go.com/.../first-look-new-mlb-batting-practice-caps
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