Game Time: 7:10 EST GABP   Lineups: REDS: (29-18) #   Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Shin-Soo Choo(L) CF 0.64 0.06 -0.35 0.59 0.57 0.92 2 Zack Cozart(R) SS -0.45 0.08 -0.39 -0.51 -0.95 -2.02 3 Joey Votto(L) 1B 1.56 0.95 1.70 -0.57 2.41 3.12 4 Brandon Phillips(R) 2B 0.39 0.29 1.27 0.12 0.71 -0.56 5 Jay Bruce(L) RF 0.28 1.60 1.23 -0.45 -0.31 -0.29 6 Todd Frazier(R) 3B -0.04 0.90 0.45 -0.63 -0.12 -0.51 7 Xavier Paul(L) LF -0.54 -0.83 -0.86 0.79 -0.16 -0.81 8 Devin Mesoraco(R) C -0.76 0.24 -0.51 -0.91 -0.88 -1.00 9 Bronson Arroyo(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA Bronson Arroyo - RHP 4-4, 3.28 ERA     CUBS: (18-28) #   Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 David DeJesus(L) CF 0.08 -0.26 -0.64 -0.43 0.31 -0.43 2 Starlin Castro(R) SS 0.85 -0.14 0.48 0.88 2.03 -0.07 3 Anthony Rizzo(L) 1B 1.03 2.39 1.89 -0.28 0.95 -0.20 4 Ryan Sweeney(L) LF -0.61 -1.50 -0.84 -0.77 0.44 -0.75 5 Nate Schierholtz(L) RF -0.08 0.15 0.27 -0.28 0.43 -0.81 6 Luis Valbuena(L) 3B -0.59 0.11 -0.54 -0.77 -0.48 -1.05 7 Dioner Navarro(S) C -1.13 -0.14 -1.12 -0.97 -1.15 -1.96 8 Darwin Barney(R) 2B -0.81 -1.28 -1.31 -0.50 0.47 -0.96 9 Scott Feldman(L) P NA NA NA NA NA NA Scott Feldman - RHP 4-3, 2.19 ERA   Leading Off:  The Reds are rolling along pretty good right now but the problem is that both the Cards and Pirates are as well.  The Pirates are now tied with the Reds for the second best record in the NL and 1.5 games behind the Cardinals.  Feldman could spoil the homecoming tonight.  According to MLB.com Feldman "has tossed five consecutive quality starts, during which he's 4-0 with a 1.27 ERA and .192 average against, and has allowed one earned run in his last 19 2/3 innings."  The good thing for the Reds, Feldman did get 3 of those 4 wins against the Padres, Marlins and Mets but he also had solid outings against the Nats and Rangers.   Why I Don't Hate the Cubs:  I know a lot of Reds fans and RO staples don't care much for the Cubs and their fans.  I on the other hand don't really care enough about them to dislike them.  As a matter of fact I've found myself liking them a bit more over the years than I have disliked them. Here's some of the reasons why I don't mind the Cubs and you shouldn't either. No real bad super stars over the years.  I didn't mind Sutcliff, Sandburg or Andre Dawson when they were Cubs.  I didn't really dislike Wood or Pryor, Shawon Dunston Mark Grace and Greg Maddox didn't bother me.  Heck I even liked Sammy Sosa more than Big Mac during the year that shall not be mentioned.  Outside of Zambrano I don't really recall having much of a hatred for any Cubs players over the years. How about Ernie Banks, Ron Santo or Bruce Sutter?  No I didn't mind those guys either. If there's no one to really hate it makes it more difficult for me to hate the team overall.  The Cubs and their fans may actually hate the WLB's more than the Reds and their fans do.  Let's face it, an enemy of your enemy is your friend.  If there's one thing I can usually count on from year to year it's the fact that the Cubs will win a few games against the WLB's that they likely shouldn't and they enjoy beating the Cardinals as much as we do.  In my book that counts as a positive. The Cubs fans I know down here are just good, old school baseball fans like us.  Not band-wagon fans down here, no intolerable, ignorant of how baseball really works, lunatic Cubs fans around me.  Heck most of those types root for the Braves or WLB's - Need you guess which two teams I despise the most? Harry Caray - really I never had any issue with Caray.  I like him much better than Chip Caray.  Sure he was a homer and so forth but I didn't mind the old guy and he provided some comic relief unintentionally most games. The Cubs have been good to the Reds over the years but especially of late.  Since 1990 the Reds have more wins against the Cubs than ANY other team.  Yes even the Pirates (who are second btw).  Since 2005 the Reds have a record of 79-59 against the Cubs.  Since 2010 the Reds are 40-16 against the Cubbies.  That's a .714 winning percentage since 2010.  We may not have the Lastros this year but we still have the Cubs.  The Cubs have been good for attendance spikes at GABP.  Let's face it, you hate them because they are in your stadium cheering THEIR team but hey, if our fans are not filling the seats at least someone is.  I say take their money and send them home losers.  They boost attendance and the bottom line so I say come on down.  Hell I wish they'd come down for the Cardinals games too just to root against them - oh and spend their money of course.    OK those are just some of the reasons I don't hate the Cubs.  Now with that being said we better win 2 of 3 if not sweep the darn series or I'll change my mind really quick.  So for those of you who hate the Cubs, let me know why.   BTW, I hear tonight's game is sold out and so is Sunday's game.  Saturday night's game will likely get close. 

No game today but the last starter was getting long so I thought I'd put up an off day starter for us if for no other reason than to make it quicker on load time.   The Reds are 11 games over .500 but still chasing the WLB's who continue to win despite losing another starting pitcher (this time Garcia--for the season).  Also of note is that Westbrook had a set back on his rehab.  I don't think the WLB's will be able to continue their pace.   Also the Pirates keep winning and are only 1/2 game behind the Reds.  It's crazy, it's maddening and it's also a bit fun.    The Reds have a short 5 game homestand coming up so perhaps we can leapfrog the Cards into first place by the end of the homestand.  The June schedule looks pretty rough though so it may be short lived unless the Reds can find a way to beat some of the better teams in the league with more consistency.  With the starting pitching looking awesome--and at full strength again--and the bats waking up, I like our chances.   That's it, talk on...

Game Time: 1:10 in NY, 12:10 in Ashland   Lineups: TBA   Leading Off Let's stop beating around the bush.   Obviously, things haven't been all that great around here this season. We've had a hard time getting thread starters; we've lost key contributers and commenters; we've been snippy/snarky/downright rude to one another over and over again. The 2013 Reds October has been nothing like the 2010-2012 Reds October, or its previous incarnations.   And if, right now, you're thinking, 'yeah Ash; I can tell you a person or two who's been to blame!' stop. Because it hasn't been one or two people; it's been all of us. There isn't a single person on this board/blog/whatever you want to call it that's been a saint, and a major part of the problem has been when we've pretended that we are.   The point is, things have sucked. So what do we do about it? Some of it is, clearly, unavoidable. If people don't want to participate anymore, then there's nothing we can do to change their minds. And, as transparent as I can be on a board where I'm using an alter ego, that hurts. It feels like rejection, and that's a feeling no one enjoys.   But I think that sometimes we take that hurt out on the people who are still here. We punish the very people that are in this with us. And that can create a resentment and a negative experience that far surpasses any rejection we might feel from those who have gone.    I don't want the Reds October of 2010-2012; as the great Gaslight Anthem have sung, "God help the man who says, 'If you'd have known me when' - old haunts are for forgotten ghosts." I want the Reds October of 2013 to be a place where I can forget about the shit of every day life and talk about the Reds with some old friends. If that's too much to ask, then so be it; but I don't think it is.   Long story short - let's police ourselves, let's have a good time, and let's give each other a little more grace. Not everyone reacts the same way to things, so let's recognize the diversity of opinion and thought on this board and be done with the side arguments and snippy comments.   Also, Go Reds.

  Game Time: 7:10 in New York, 6:10 in Ashland   Lineups: Cincinnati (27-18 and assured of a winning road trip with two games to play) # Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Derrick Robinson(S) CF NA NA NA NA NA NA 2 Zack Cozart(R) SS -0.78 -0.56 -0.94 -0.52 -1.20 -2.06 3 Joey Votto(L) 1B 0.94 0.02 0.63 -0.60 1.67 3.07 4 Brandon Phillips(R) 2B -0.06 -0.52 0.52 0.15 0.26 -0.70 5 Jay Bruce(L) RF -0.41 0.45 0.26 -0.49 -1.03 -0.69 6 Todd Frazier(R) 3B -0.40 -0.02 -0.16 -0.63 -0.37 -0.31 7 Donald Lutz() LF -1.44 -0.53 -1.18 -0.46 -1.95 -2.53 8 Devin Mesoraco(R) C -1.08 -0.46 -1.14 -0.92 -1.07 -0.78 9 Mike Leake(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA Leake 1   New York (17-25and assured of being second fiddle in their own city until the end of time) # Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Daniel Murphy(L) 2B 0.59 -1.02 -0.13 -0.22 2.11 0.06 2 Mike Baxter(L) RF -0.09 -0.63 -0.66 -0.03 -0.27 0.17 3 David Wright(R) 3B 0.79 0.50 1.08 0.41 1.13 0.79 4 Lucas Duda(L) LF -0.07 0.31 0.46 -0.95 -0.02 -0.13 5 Rick Ankiel(L) CF -0.75 -0.06 -0.39 -0.24 -1.20 -1.87 6 John Buck(R) C -0.94 0.34 -0.80 -1.02 -1.63 -1.42 7 Ike Davis(L) 1B -0.24 1.20 0.10 -0.97 -0.44 -0.38 8 Ruben Tejada(R) SS -0.94 -1.84 -1.60 -0.56 0.37 -0.60 9 Jonathon Niese(L) P NA NA NA NA NA NA Niese 1   Leading Off: If you’ll allow me a moment of indulgence, there are some things I need to get off my chest.   First, a story: I was in high school, at one of those stereotypical teenage gatherings where a guy like me could find himself throwing a football back and forth with my best friend. Enter: a girl named Megan, whom I had dated briefly earlier that year. While we were dating, she had proven quite fun; while we were not, she had proven quite crazy. ‘Let me play!’ she said, all cute and bubbly and annoyingly. ‘Sure!’ I replied, before I faked throwing the ball far over her head, hiding it behind my back instead. Confused, she looked around, and I said to my best friend, ‘she’s just like a small dog.’ She cried, and ran off to be annoying somewhere else.   There are two lessons to this story: for one, teenagers are terrible, horrible people. Seriously – sometimes I wish I could go back in time and punch myself in the face repeatedly. Why anyone would want to create, raise, and pretend to love one of those, I’ll never understand. But for two, there are certain things that reasonable human beings shouldn’t fall for. One of those is the old ‘pretend to throw the ball and hide it behind your back trick’; and another is the hot streak of Jay Bruce.   Allow me to be clear: Jay Bruce is NOT ‘coming into his own.’ He is NOT ‘finally putting it together.’ He is NOT a ‘potential MVP candidate.’ He is not any of those things. What Jay Bruce is, at the moment, is hot. This was predictable; in fact, I predicted it. Before the Milwaukee series (when this hot streak began), I told my dad, ‘if Bruce doesn’t get hot now, we should start to worry. But he will.’ Why did I say that? Three reasons: Bruce kills Milwaukee, Bruce rakes in the month of May, and Bruce is Bruce. Seriously – he is what he is.   I don’t care that he’s currently on a 21 HR, 57 2B, 108 RBI pace. I don’t care that he looks locked in, staying off pitches he can’t hit and hitting everything (including his outs) hard. We’ve seen this before. Jay Bruce is an ultra-streaky, good but not great corner outfielder with elite power (and a guy who I’m not making fun of; I have his jersey, after all. I love the guy. But still). That’s who he is, and if you try to tell yourself anything else, you’re being as logical as a teenage girl looking for the football that was never thrown.   Second, a stat line: .280/.325/.469. That is, in case you’re not familiar with the current slash lines of every Reds player, the batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage of Brandon Phillips in 2013. And, it’s eerily similar to the batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage of Brandon Phillips in 2012, which was .281/.321/.429. See? I told you. Eerie.   I bring this up to dispel an idiotic notion I keep hearing: ‘Brandon Phillips is the Reds MVP!’ No, he’s not. Not even close. He is, currently, having no more than the third (and, depending on how strongly you feel about the seasons thus far of Bailey and/or Latos, fourth or fifth) best season on the Reds this year. And, oh yeah – thanks to Bruce’s current hot streak, he’s right there with him. The reason people don’t see this is because of an infatuation with the outdated, antiquated stat that continues to befuddle 50 year old sportswriters everywhere: RBI.   You want to know why Brandon Phillips is driving in runs this year? Because he has the fortune of batting in the four hole behind two elite (and much better than him) hitters. It’s not rocket science; last year, he got hits when there weren’t guys in scoring position. This year, he’s getting hits at the exact same rate, but this time, he’s been lucky enough to have guys on base in front of him. He’s the same guy he was last year – an All-Star who I love just as much as Bruce, by the way – just with better luck. How anyone – and I mean ANYONE – with a brain could think that Phillips is some magical RBI machine this year is beyond me. He’s just Brandon Phillips, batting fourth. It’s 2013, not 1963. We have more than a box score in the newspaper now, and we should listen to Joey Votto and all, together, say it with feeling: ‘We don’t care about runs batted in!’   Finally, two blasts from the past. Remember in 1995, when we had Ronny Gant, and he helped a good Reds team go 85-59 in a strike shortened year with a .386 OBP, 29 HR, and a 3.4 WAR year? Sure you do. It was great. And remember in 1999, when Greg ‘Please Don’t Test My Urine’ Vaughn hit 45 homers on a 96 win Reds team that had something to play for right until the last day of the year (f*%^ you, Al Leiter)? Me too! It was super fun!   At no point in those seasons do I remember Reds fans being obsessed with the future of those players. I don’t remember pieces being written about their agents or long term contracts or what teams wanted to sign them for a large amount of money. I remember, instead, enjoying watching them play baseball really well on good Reds teams.   Can we please – PLEASE – treat Choo the way we treated them (or, at least the way I remember treating them)? It’s not even June and I’m sick to death with the daily Choo contract talks. Everyone knows the truth – there are some scenarios where Choo is a Red long term. There are other, more likely scenarios where Choo is a Red only for 2013. What else is there to say? Let’s just enjoy having the best leadoff batter in the game while we have him; let’s worry about tomorrow, tomorrow, and today, today.   Besides, rooting for baseball players is like being in a relationship. Some guys, you marry (like Votto, or Larkin, or Bench); some guys you have for glorious time and you look back on fondly, despite a divorce (like Casey, or Davis, or Morgan); and some guys you have a fling with. And when you have a fling, it’s fun while it lasts, and afterwards, it’s annoying… like a small dog.   And now that we’ve come full circle on this rant, let’s finish up. GO REDS!

  Game Time: 7:10 in New York, 6:10 in Ashland   Lineups: Cincinnati (26-18 and second/third in the best division in the league)   # Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Shin-Soo Choo(L) CF 0.54 -0.26 -0.32 0.63 0.41 1.24 2 Cesar Izturis(S) SS -1.31 -1.50 -1.85 -0.11 -1.84 -2.85 3 Joey Votto(L) 1B 1.37 0.46 1.30 -0.54 2.03 3.52 4 Brandon Phillips(R) 2B -0.09 -0.49 0.60 0.14 0.04 -0.93 5 Jay Bruce(L) RF 0.16 1.02 0.96 -0.42 -0.35 -0.01 6 Todd Frazier(R) 3B -0.43 0.04 -0.04 -0.62 -0.51 -0.64 7 Xavier Paul(L) LF -0.51 -0.99 -0.74 0.83 -0.22 -0.64 8 Ryan Hanigan(R) C -0.82 -1.36 -1.36 -0.94 -0.20 0.47 9 Johnny Cueto(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA Cueto 1   New York (17-24 and in fourth in the worst division in baseball) #   Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Daniel Murphy(L) 2B -0.15 -1.39 -1.02 -0.32 0.88 -0.68 2 Rick Ankiel(L) CF -1.26 -0.72 -1.53 -0.28 -2.12 -2.60 3 David Wright(R) 3B -0.11 -0.48 -0.51 0.24 0.12 0.11 4 Lucas Duda(L) LF -0.80 -0.59 -0.82 -0.94 -0.90 -0.74 5 Marlon Byrd(R) RF -1.08 -1.39 -1.30 -0.64 -0.69 -1.59 6 Ike Davis(L) 1B -0.91 -0.01 -0.92 -0.95 -1.22 -0.94 7 John Buck(R) C -1.61 -0.64 -1.70 -1.00 -2.19 -1.84 8 Ruben Tejada(R) SS -1.31 -1.88 -2.04 -0.60 -0.46 -1.13 9 Shaun Marcum(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA Marcum 1     Leading Off: Today, I’m seeing the new Star Trek movie.   I know, I know - that has nothing to do with the Reds. But look – we’re playing a terrible team who’s starting a pitcher whose ERA is 6.75, and we have our ace back on the hill opposing him. If tonight isn’t an easy Reds win, none of us should be happy, which makes it kind of a lose/lose situation. If the Reds win, cool – it was expected and probably pretty dull. If they lose, it’s just embarrassing.   So instead of talking about this, let’s talk about science fiction! Namely (and to steal the shtick from the guy with the dogs the other day), who would our beloved Reds be if they were from one of the three big sci-fi franchises (Doctor Who, Star Wars, and Star Trek; and yes, in that order. And no, I will not argue about this)? Let’s see!   The Starting Eight:   8 Choo: Darth Maul, Star Wars (prequels) If you recall, the prequels were exciting for two reasons and two reasons only: it was the first Star Wars in a decade and a half, and there was a new character named Darth Maul. Darth Maul was basically a Sith ninja (the two coolest bad guys there are), and he had horns on his painted face and a double bladed lightsaber. Seriously – coolest guy ever. And then, inexplicably, Lucas killed him after only about 20 minutes of screen time, which was a microcosm for just how terrible the prequels were. Well, Choo is every bit as good as Darth Maul was cool, and if, as expected, he leaves for a $100 million contract in the offseason, we should be just as upset as when Darth Maul got cut in half.   6 Cozart: Redshirts, Star Trek If you’re wearing a red shirt in Star Trek, you’re going to die, and quickly. If you’re Zack Cozart, you’re going to get out, and quickly.   3 Votto: The Doctor, Doctor Who The Doctor is the last of the Time Lords. He’s the only being on the planet who can control all of time, space and reality; heck, this guy is so powerful that he’s a freaking pacifist whose only weapon is a screwdriver and he puts fear in the hearts of the fiercest armies in the universe. In other words, the greatest sci-fi hero of all time is almost (but not quite) as good at his job as Joey Votto is at his.   4 Phillips: Lando Calrissian, Star Wars Remember how Lando was kind of a jerk at first? And how they thought he was a bad guy with a bad attitude? And then it turned out he was as cool as Han Solo? And then he had his own psychic network (wait, that might have been after the movie…)? Well, that’s pretty much Brandon. We thought he was lazy and had a bad attitude and then learned he was just amazing. Also, only black man in the galaxy = only black man (of significance) on the Reds. All too easy.   9 Bruce: Captain James T. Kirk, Star Trek (new reboot) In the new Star Trek franchise, Kirk is equal parts badass and screwup. In other words, he’s Jay Bruce.   5 Frazier: Captan Jack Harkness, Doctor Who A story: a friend of a friend got hit on in New York by a guy claiming to be Todd Frazier this past March. It wasn’t actually Frazier; the Reds were in Arizona. But still – Frazier is so cool and suave that PEOPLE ARE LYING ABOUT BEING HIM TO GET INTO GIRLS’ PANTS. Yup – that’s Captain Jack.   7 Random, Various Left Fielders: The Doctors’ Companions, Doctor Who They all have their own strengths and weaknesses; they all do the job just fine; they all are completely disposable at the end of the day.   2 Hanigan: Mister Spock, Star Trek Have you ever seen Hanigan smile? Me either. But the man is a catching savant and a brilliant, underrated man. Live long and prosper.     The Starting Pitchers   Cueto: Chewbacca, Star Wars It’s not just the hair. Okay, fine – it’s the hair.   Bailey: Luke Skywalker, Star Wars Limitless potential, and completely irritating for 75% of the original trilogy. He made good in the end, though, just like Bailey is.   Latos: Han Solo, Star Wars No one’s cooler than Han Solo… except maybe Mat Latos.   Arroyo: Obi-Wan Kenobi, Star Wars (original trilogy) Old Ben wishes he could be half the wise old sage that Nosnorb is now.   Leake: Princess Leia, Star Wars (particularly as a slave, in Jabba’s palace in Episode VI) Do I need to make the joke? Nah.   Tony Cingrani: Boba Fett (Star Wars) Super hyped, super awesome, super short screen time.     The Bullpen   Chapman/Broxton/Marshall: Anakin Skywalker/Darth Vader, Star Wars When they’re on, they can do things no other bullpen trio can do – they’re nastier than the Nasty Boys. When they’re off, they’re basically slaughtering younglings out there (or blowing games to the Phillies).     And finally, Dusty Baker: Yoda, Star Wars In small doses (like in the original trilogy), Yoda’s great. Sure, he doesn’t make much sense (like when he tells Luke his training isn’t finished, and then, after exactly no more training, he tells him his training is finished), and he talks backwards while he does it. But he’s a good dude. In big doses (like in the prequels)? It’s a freaking trainwreck. Dusty is great in the clubhouse, terrible on the field, and he speaks in riddles – Yoda, he is.     Who did I miss? What did I get wrong? Tell me in the comments!   Also, GO REDS!!!

Time:  1:35 p.m. ET   Location:  Citizens Bank Ballpark   Radio/TV: WLW 700; FS-O    Lineups:   Reds (26-17)    #   Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Shin-Soo Choo(L) CF 0.62 -0.20 -0.34 0.67 0.47 1.46 2 Cesar Izturis(S) SS -1.16 -1.51 -1.82 -0.08 -1.52 -2.33 3 Joey Votto(L) 1B 1.44 0.54 1.35 -0.55 2.10 3.69 4 Brandon Phillips(R) 2B 0.17 -0.42 0.85 0.19 0.57 -0.36 5 Jay Bruce(L) RF 0.20 1.16 1.01 -0.43 -0.32 0.21 6 Todd Frazier(R) 3B -0.23 0.15 0.10 -0.63 -0.06 -0.13 7 Xavier Paul(L) LF -0.51 -0.97 -0.69 0.88 -0.19 -0.43 8 Ryan Hanigan(R) C -0.68 -1.36 -1.25 -0.96 0.22 0.92 9 Homer Bailey(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA     Phillies (20-23)   #   Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Jimmy Rollins(S) SS -0.20 0.14 -0.89 1.15 -1.01 -1.35 2 Ben Revere(L) CF -0.22 -1.98 -1.75 2.81 0.17 -1.11 3 Michael Young(R) 1B -0.13 -1.01 -0.32 -0.87 0.84 -0.50 4 Chase Utley(L) 2B 0.11 0.31 0.32 0.35 -0.36 0.32 5 Domonic Brown(L) LF -0.06 0.22 0.43 -0.66 -0.01 -0.19 6 Laynce Nix(L) RF -0.57 0.53 -0.02 -0.97 -0.89 -1.33 7 Carlos Ruiz(R) C -0.17 -0.34 -0.08 -0.81 0.62 0.41 8 Freddy Galvis(S) 3B -1.74 -1.07 -1.39 -0.98 -1.88 -2.87 9 Jonathan Pettibone() P NA NA NA NA NA NA     Haiku Recap of Yesterday’s 10-0 Victory  Bronson brilliant Hanigan makes a big RAWR Phils tremble and fall   Yesterday’s Dusty WTF Moment  I intended to make this a regular part of my starters, but since I didn’t get to see the game and the Reds won 10-0, I assume every decision Dusty made was brilliant.  Well, except for the ongoing decision to bat Cozart second in the lineup.    Today's Pitching Match-up:  RHP Homer Bailey (2-3, 3.51 ERA/2.89 FIP) v. RHP Jonathan Pettibone (3-0, 3.41 ERA/4.78 FIP).   It’s been Bizarro Bailey this year in terms of home/road splits.  For most of his career, Bailey has been a road warrior, posting an ERA over one run lower than he has at the GABP bandbox.  Last year it was really pronounced:  2.32 on the road vs. 5.16 at home.    This year the results have been the opposite:  he has a 2.16 ERA in four home starts at GABP but a 4.78 ERA in four road starts.  Part of the reason for the difference is the terrible start he had at St. Louis early in the season (7 runs in 5 IP), so I expect his road numbers will improve.  But is the improved home ERA an early season mirage or a sign of overall improvement?   Bailey’s strikeout rates are up a tad this year, but his biggest improvement is in his ground ball/fly ball rates: 1.60 this year compared to 1.21 for his career.  I initially assumed it was because he’s throwing more split-fingered fastballs and fewer sliders, but he’s actually getting fewer ground balls on his splitter than he has in past years.  Instead he’s getting more ground balls this year on all of his other pitches, which tells me he’s doing a better job of keeping the ball down.  If he can maintain his ground ball rates, especially in smaller parks where he has a tendency to give up some cheap home runs, this could be a break out year for Bailey.    Bailey pitched eight shutout innings with ten strikeouts against the Phillies at GABP earlier this season.  Although he’s struggled a bit at Citizens Bank Ballpark over his career, he limited the Phillies to two earned runs over 6.1 innings pitched in his only start there in 2012.  Hopefully we’ll see the Bailey today that pitched the gem against the Phillies earlier this year.   Rookie Jonathan Pettibone will be making his sixth start of the season for the Phillies.  Despite being 6-5, his fastball averages around 90 mph.  He reportedly has a good change-up and is known as a ground ball pitcher.  His FIP indicates he’s been a bit lucky this year.  The Reds need to make sure that luck ends today and Phillies’ fans don’t get a Pettiboner.   Otter Odds and Ends:    *    Joey Votto is awesome, but you already knew that.   *     Top ten rejected nicknames for Philadelphia.   *    After losing 8 of their first 9 road games, the Reds have gone 9-3 on the road.  A win today would bring the Reds’ road record back to .500 for the season.   *    Shin-Soo Choo apparently has a side gig playing centerfield for the Diamondbacks under the alias A.J. Pollock.  I suspect Thom Brennaman is involved.   *    Remember Morganna the Kissing Bandit? Votto tells Cozart to talk to the 6 for 6 hand

GAME TIME: 4:05 PM ET LOCATION: Citizens Bank Park Radio: CIN: WLW 700 PHI: 1210 WPHT, 94 WIP TV: FOX  only (another of those annoying blackouts for me) Lineups: Cincinnati: (25-17)   #   Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Shin-Soo Choo(L) CF 0.65 -0.04 -0.18 0.61 0.49 0.94 2 Zack Cozart(R) SS -0.56 -0.35 -0.56 -0.51 -0.97 -1.92 3 Joey Votto(L) 1B 1.55 0.82 1.82 -0.57 2.44 3.10 4 Brandon Phillips(R) 2B 0.18 -0.31 0.89 0.17 0.63 -0.59 5 Jay Bruce(L) RF 0.24 1.46 1.33 -0.45 -0.43 -0.25 6 Todd Frazier(R) 3B -0.22 0.33 0.23 -0.64 -0.10 -0.48 7 Donald Lutz() LF -0.97 0.05 -0.64 -0.41 -1.41 -1.86 8 Ryan Hanigan(R) C -0.78 -1.33 -1.54 -0.96 0.22 0.50 9 Bronson Arroyo(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA   Philadelphia (20-22) #   Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Jimmy Rollins(S) SS 0.28 0.45 -0.53 1.20 -0.08 -1.03 2 Chase Utley(L) 2B 0.70 0.80 0.30 0.44 0.58 0.54 3 Michael Young(R) 3B -0.14 0.22 0.18 -0.91 0.48 -1.11 4 Ryan Howard(L) 1B 0.44 2.15 1.52 -1.00 -0.11 -0.47 5 Delmon Young(R) RF -0.14 0.22 0.18 -0.91 0.48 -1.11 6 Domonic Brown(L) LF 0.25 0.46 0.50 -0.67 0.91 0.04 7 John Mayberry(R) CF -0.21 0.75 0.27 -0.51 -0.03 -1.03 8 Erik Kratz(R) C -0.75 1.20 -0.14 -0.98 -1.29 -1.89 9 Kyle Kendrick(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA   Today’s Pitching Matchup: Bronson Arroyo, RHP (3-4, 3.76 ERA) Arroyo had his first scoreless outing in his last start, blanking the Brewers over 6 2/3 innings and dropping his ERA from 4.30 to 3.76. He scattered two runs over eight innings against Philadelphia on April 15. Kyle Kendricks, RHP (4-1, 2.47) Kendrick has been the Phillies' most consistent starter this season and a nice boost to the rotation. He has not allowed more than two runs since his first start of the season on April 5. He has a 1.84 ERA in his last seven starts.     Last Night’s Game:  An up and down game where the Reds performed some heroics from expected parts (Bruuuce with a HR to the second row of seats in RF, Votto with a shot that looked to leave the city to tie the game after Lee was lifted, scoreless innings from the middle relief), and some unexpected implosions from the setup pitchers.    This game could have had a totally different outcome had Mike Marshall not flubbed the “infield hit” by Ryan Howard (a homer ruling if there ever was one, since he couldn’t get the ball out of his glove in spite of having someone only marginally faster than Corky Miller running).  That was the only “hit” of the inning, but  along with every other misfortune you could expect to encounter, it led to two  Phillies runs and the ballgame.  How often do you get a misplayed bunt, a flubbed potential DP ball, a runner called safe at home who was clearly out on the flyball to center (see picture below), a near opportunity to see the only remaining catcher tossed for arguing (along with Dusty) and a hit batsman?  That could be called a comedy of errors, but it wasn’t funny to Reds’ fans.   Tony Cingrani managed to get off the hook for the loss after leaving the game when Joey Votto tied it with his HR, but (to me) showed why he needs some seasoning in AAA.  He actually threw some non-fastballs, but did not really have much command of them.  There was an excellent example for him in his opposition on the mound in Cliff Lee.  Lee threw primarily fastballs the first time through the lineup, then switched to primarily curveballs and other off speed pitches the second and third time through the Reds’ lineup.  He was able to place them where he wanted and get outs.   Cingrani was forced to throw his fastballs when he needed a strike and the batters knew this.  They were able to keep fouling balls off and drive up his pitch count so that he was done after five innings with 100 pitches.  This is something that plagues many young pitchers (remember Cueto and Bailey when they were younguns?  Volquez  never did learn, and look where he isn’t now).  Cingrani also has a tendency to throw a fat pitch or two per game for home runs.  The Phils only hit one, but Cliff Lee almost made it two with his double off the wall just below the homerun line. Cingrani leads the Reds in homeruns allowed, and in his three starts in May allowed five of the seven total  he has given up.     Today’s game is one of those strange late afternoon games that makes outfielders  (such as XP) lose balls-let’s hope that it is not the Reds with these problems.  My bold prediction for the day is that Jay Bruce hits another HR (I did say yesterday that I expected him to start adding to his total very shortly, and he started with one in that game). Bruce is 5-for-14 (.357) with two homers against Kendrick in his career, so things look good on that front.   Go Reds, start another winning streak!  

GAME TIME:  7:05 PM ET Location: Citizens Bank Park Radio: CIN: WLW 700 PHI: 1210 WPHT, 94 WIP, WTTM 1680 TV: CIN: FS-O PHI: PHL 17 Pitching Matchup: Tony Cingrani, LHP (2-0, 2.89 ERA) vs. Cliff Lee, LHP (4-2, 2.86 ERA) Lineups: Cincinnati (25-16, and sneaking up on first place)   # Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Shin-Soo Choo(L) CF -0.37 -0.35 -0.96 0.29 -0.98 -1.39 2 Zack Cozart(R) SS -0.92 -0.35 -1.01 -0.54 -1.39 -2.87 3 Joey Votto(L) 1B 0.55 0.48 0.72 -0.66 1.04 0.62 4 Brandon Phillips(R) 2B -0.21 -0.31 0.12 0.09 0.09 -1.40 5 Jay Bruce(L) RF -0.78 0.84 0.04 -0.56 -1.70 -2.34 6 Todd Frazier(R) 3B -0.58 0.33 -0.33 -0.66 -0.54 -1.48 7 Devin Mesoraco(R) C -1.20 -0.15 -1.04 -0.92 -1.30 -2.05 8 Derrick Robinson(S) LF NA NA NA NA NA NA 9 Tony Cingrani(L) P NA NA NA NA NA NA Philadelphia (19-22 and only 3.5 games out of first in the East)   # Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Jimmy Rollins(S) SS -0.16 0.23 -0.92 1.32 -1.58 -0.72 2 Chase Utley(L) 2B -0.15 0.22 -0.67 0.47 -1.50 0.49 3 Michael Young(R) 3B -0.51 0.22 -0.06 -0.89 -0.72 -1.27 4 Ryan Howard(L) 1B -0.49 1.25 0.19 -0.98 -1.99 -0.53 5 Delmon Young(R) RF -0.51 0.22 -0.06 -0.89 -0.72 -1.27 6 Domonic Brown(L) LF -0.55 -0.03 -0.52 -0.65 -1.02 -0.10 7 Carlos Ruiz(R) C -0.02 -0.16 0.07 -0.77 0.38 1.23 8 John Mayberry(R) CF -0.54 0.59 -0.02 -0.47 -1.02 -0.55 9 Cliff Lee(L) P NA NA NA NA NA NA   Last Night’s Game: SWEEP!  Ok,  Ok, it was the Marlins, and they did keep the roof open (and have yet to win this  year in the ten game that it has been  open), and it  did take extra innings, but it was still a sweep.  Mat Latos pitched into the ninth inning in one of his better efforts in a very good season to date and was again the victim of a blown save. The Reds as a whole have blown only three saves, and all three were games Latos stood to win. You have to believe that sooner or later (hopefully sooner) Mat gets the same support his fellow starters get and the wins start piling up for him.   Brandon Phillips continues to lead the league in RBIs and twice put the Reds up a run, including in the tenth inning. Jay Bruce is starting to look like Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuce with another 3 RBI in the game, including one to tie the game early, and two in the tenth that proved to be the winning margin after JJ Hoover had a tough time getting the third out to end the game.  Jay is driving in runs, but still not in the manner to which we have become accustomed in the past, as he is not doing it by hitting homeruns (three YTD, but I am predicting that is about to increase a bunch).  Choo and Votto are still being Choo and Votto, so all is good there as well.   Some Miscellaneous Thoughts From Who Knows Where:   The “weak” NL central division has a combined record of 108-93;  the “powerhouse” NL East boasts an 88-112 record overall The Reds have won six straight road games as well as six straight games overall.  Not bad for a team who started the year with one road win in their first nine games (currently at 9-10 away heading into Philadelphia)  If the Reds can repeat the sweep of the Phils that they had at home again this weekend, they would have gone 23-9 in the games played since Cueto went onto the DL after the 12th game of the year (when their record was 5-7). Sounds a bit like what they did after losing their best hitter last season, doesn’t it?  Sure would like  to see it happen, with Johnny coming back right after the series. Why on earth did the Phillies sign Carlos Zambrano? I realized shortly after first seeing the news that it was to a minor league contract, but I still can’t see anyone wanting to add the weight of all  his baggage to any team in their system. No matter which position you hold regarding Tony Cingrani’s immediate future, you have to be excited about him going forward.  Robert Stephenson may also be the real deal, although a couple of years behind Cingrani in development.  I am more appreciative with every series of the Reds’ overall team defense.  Seeing what passes for fielding in the opposition reminds me of how fine the defense is that I have come to expect nightly from just about every Reds player (and a certain OFer gets a pass from me because he more than makes up for it elsewhere and is playing out of position as well). Who wants to kickstart the Keep Choo fund?     Keep on rolling, Redlegs! This is what a team on a roll looks like:

Gametime:  7:10 p.m.   Pitching Matchup: Mat Latos (4-0, 3.04) Jose Fernandez (2-2, 3.65)   Lineups: Cincinnati Reds (24-16 and sizzling)   # Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Shin-Soo Choo(L) CF 0.55 -0.10 -0.08 0.92 0.03 1.31 2 Zack Cozart(R) SS -0.47 -0.37 -0.23 -0.34 -1.16 -1.67 3 Joey Votto(L) 1B 1.09 0.48 0.82 -0.35 1.42 3.34 4 Brandon Phillips(R) 2B 0.08 -0.34 0.68 0.36 0.03 -0.58 5 Jay Bruce(L) RF 0.19 0.98 0.60 -0.23 -0.58 0.22 6 Todd Frazier(R) 3B -0.15 0.08 0.14 -0.45 -0.45 -0.21 7 Xavier Paul(L) LF -0.20 -0.71 -0.29 1.08 -0.46 -0.43 8 Ryan Hanigan(R) C -0.33 -1.06 -0.60 -0.79 -0.17 0.82 9 Mat Latos(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA Miami Marlins (11-29 and cooked)   # Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Juan Pierre(L) LF 0.24 -1.37 -0.85 2.64 0.64 -0.23 2 Adeiny Hechavarria(R) SS -0.64 -0.90 -0.59 -0.44 -0.75 -1.81 3 Derek Dietrich() 2B NA NA NA NA NA NA 4 Marcell Ozuna() RF -0.50 0.40 -0.27 -0.47 -1.16 -1.60 5 Chris Coghlan(L) CF -0.33 -0.68 -0.55 0.25 -0.39 -0.53 6 Jeff Mathis(R) C -0.90 -0.21 -0.65 -0.77 -1.53 -2.14 7 Greg Dobbs(L) 1B -0.39 -0.54 -0.45 -0.54 0.13 -0.85 8 Nick Green(R) 3B -0.95 -0.77 -0.94 -0.73 -1.40 -1.36 9 Jose Fernandez(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA   Last Night: I guess my suggestion in yesterday’s starter to give Shin-Soo Choo the night off was a bad idea.  On Tuesday I identified Choo as the team MVP.  Maybe it’s time to acknowledge him as a leading candidate for LEAGUE MVP.  Seriously.  Oh, and congrats to Mike Leake for securing a spot in the rotation, which Dusty says was never up for question.   Tonight: I attended the April 18 game when Marlins rookie Jose Fernandez pitched against us, and all I can say is that he is impressive.  Yes, we beat him—but the dude throws 95 and 75 with the same motion, and for strikes.  I think he’s going to be a star.  Let’s hope Latos is on his game and that our hitters continue their hot ways (11 hits last night—but all from the top five in the order).   Spring Training 2014: The big excitement in my world yesterday is that I landed a condo rental in Scottsdale for Spring Training 2014.  For those who don’t know, I’ll be on sabbatical and plan to spend the entire month of March in AZ, watching baseball until it comes out of my ears.  My hope is to see the Reds play in every Cactus League park.  Here’s a map of all the ball yards—all within 45 minutes of each other.  BTW, our condo is walking distance from Scottsdale Stadium.   And Finally… This video is rather risqué—but c’mon, it’s a preacher lady!  I couldn’t stop laughing at it yesterday.  The look on the face of the other lady is priceless.  

  Gametime:  7:10 p.m.   Pitching Matchup: Leake (2-2, 4.32) Sanabia (2-5, 4.85)   Lineups: Cincinnati Reds (23-16 and on a roll) # Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Shin-Soo Choo(L) CF 0.85 0.06 -0.04 0.68 0.89 1.44 2 Cesar Izturis(S) SS -0.95 -1.41 -1.58 -0.04 -1.13 -2.14 3 Joey Votto(L) 1B 1.74 0.91 1.98 -0.51 2.53 3.54 4 Brandon Phillips(R) 2B 0.36 -0.29 1.14 0.24 0.94 -0.24 5 Jay Bruce(L) RF 0.47 1.58 1.55 -0.38 0.05 0.22 6 Xavier Paul(L) LF -0.20 -0.76 -0.37 0.95 0.18 -0.36 7 Jack Hannahan(L) 3B -0.94 -0.85 -1.08 -0.84 -0.82 -0.44 8 Devin Mesoraco(R) C -0.67 -0.20 -0.34 -0.87 -0.46 -0.59 9 Mike Leake(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA Miami Marlins (11-28 and rolling over) #   Player Pos RunsV HrV RBIV SBV AvgV OBPV 1 Juan Pierre(L) LF 0.17 -1.75 -1.61 2.33 1.23 -0.08 2 Placido Polanco(R) 3B -0.66 -1.52 -1.50 -0.88 0.27 -0.83 3 Derek Dietrich() 2B NA NA NA NA NA NA 4 Marcell Ozuna() RF -0.73 0.22 -0.48 -0.60 -1.01 -1.75 5 Justin Ruggiano(R) CF 0.09 0.17 -0.01 0.59 0.59 -0.20 6 Greg Dobbs(L) 1B -0.53 -0.81 -0.74 -0.66 0.53 -0.84 7 Adeiny Hechavarria(R) SS -1.12 -1.32 -1.17 -0.62 -0.39 -1.58 8 Rob Brantly(L) C -0.63 -0.70 -0.73 -0.70 0.34 -0.31 9 Alex Sanabia(R) P NA NA NA NA NA NA Last Night: This is the way we should beat inferior teams: Jump on them early, then keep them in check.  The big hit of the night was Xavier Paul’s bases-clearing double, but I also appreciated the RBI walks by Votto and Phillips.  Don’t swing at crap, even if you’re the team’s big hitters. Multi-hit games from Cozart, Votto, Phillips, and Hanigan—good stuff.  Better yet was the complete game, ten strikeout performance by Homer Bailey.  For those who weren’t watching in the 9th inning, he consistently was hitting 95-97 MPH on the radar gun at the end of the game.  It was nice to see him protect the lead so (seemingly) effortlessly.  He was dealing.   Tonight: Big game for Mike Leake.  Might it be his last turn in the rotation, since Johnny Cueto is raring to return next week?  I’d like to think so, but he’ll probably make the decision difficult.  He tends to perform well against poor teams, and they don’t get much poorer than the Marlins.   Cingrani or Leake: I know that most everyone weighed in on this yesterday, stealing my thunder for today’s starter.  Let me just say for the record that I’m firmly in the Cingrani camp.  Besides the fact that we need a lefty in this rotation (and have for years), he has simply performed better than Leake.  Yes, I know he needs to develop a second or third pitch.  Let him do so under the tutelage of Bryan Price.  Yes, I know he might get hit harder the second time teams face him—but that’s all the more reason to let teams face him at least once.  And no, please don’t put him in the bullpen (as Jim Kelch suggested last night).  Groom and keep him as a starter, because a lefty who throws 95 MPH is an awfully rare commodity.  We already have a hard-throwing lefty who should be a starter in the bullpen.    Random Things I’d Like to See In Tonight’s Game: --Cozart taking an outside pitch to right field for a single --Votto driving a ball off the wall in left-center for a double --Robinson racing down a deep fly ball in CF (and giving Choo a night off and batting leadoff) --Bruce picking back up where Dusty left him off --Leake not giving up walks at the rate he has this season --Frazier getting a couple of hits (he’s at .229 right now—need to get him back on track)